沙尘灾害对交通运输业的影响机理及实证分析  

Influence Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of Sand and Dust Disasters on Transportation Industry

作　　者：韩炜宏 吴瑶瑶 杨新吉勒图 杨艳丽 HAN Weihong;WU Yaoyao;YANG Xinjiletu;YANG Yanli(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010000,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010000

出　　处：《物流科技》2025年第3期105-108,共4页Logistics Sci Tech

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于水环境承载力视角的CGE模型随机化改进及其对水污染物适用税额的优化研究”(71864027);国家自然科学基金项目“碳交易机制对高耗能产业生态效率的影响路径及时空模拟评价研究”(72263025);教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目“环保税地区定额税率的优化机制研究:基于环境自净能力与经济活动的一般均衡分析”(19YJA790023)。

摘　　要：基于沙尘灾害对交通运输业的影响具有相当的深度与广度,文章为对其进行充分验证。首先定性分析了沙尘灾害对交通运输业的综合影响机理;然后将该机理纳入到标准CGE模型中,通过直接影响与间接影响设置,引入对行业产出有显著影响的沙尘灾害冲击参数和劳动力总供给的变化率,构建能够模拟沙尘灾害对某行业综合影响的随机CGE模型。利用该模型,以内蒙古地区为例,将沙尘灾害对交通运输业的综合影响进行实证研究。研究结果表明:一方面,沙尘灾害对交通运输业的直接影响显著,主要通过沙尘灾害冲击参数对交通运输业全要素生产率的影响而发生。另一方面,沙尘灾害对交通运输业的间接影响主要通过沙尘灾害冲击参数对其他相关行业全要素生产率及劳动力总供给变化率的影响而发生。Based on the depth and breadth of the impact of sand disaster on the transportation industry,it is fully verified.Firstly,the comprehensive influence mechanism of sand disaster on the transportation industry is analyzed qualitatively.Then,this mechanism is incorporated into the standard CGE model.Through the setting of direct influence and indirect influence,the impact parameters of sand disaster and the change rate of the total labor supply,which have significant influence on the output of the industry,are introduced to build a stochastic CGE model that can simulate the comprehensive impact of sand disaster on an industry.This model is used to empirically study the comprehensive impact of dust disaster on transportation industry in Inner Mongolia.The results show that:On the one hand,the direct impact of dust disaster on the transport industry is significant,mainly through the impact of dust disaster impact parameters on the total factor productivity of the transport industry.Specifically reflected in the impact of the transport industry's transport vehicles,channels,power,terminals and communication and other elements,and then have a direct impact on the transport industry.On the other hand,the indirect impact of dust disaster on the transportation industry is mainly caused by the impact parameters of dust disaster on the total factor productivity and the change rate of the total labor supply of other related industries.Specifically,it impacts the total supply of labor and the gross product of other industrial sectors in the region.Through trade links,the impact is transmitted to the transportation industry,and then has an indirect impact on the transportation industry.

关 键 词：沙尘灾害 交通运输业 影响机理 CGE模型 实证分析 

分 类 号：F506[经济管理—产业经济]