基于多元线性回归的物流需求影响因素分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Influencing Factors of Logistics Demand Based on Multiple Linear Regression

作　　者：彭永芳 段佳新 刘晨旭 PENG Yongfang;DUAN Jiaxin;LIU Chenxu(Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《物流科技》2025年第2期49-53,共5页Logistics Sci Tech

基　　金：河北省社会科学发展研究重点课题“供给侧改革下河北省科技型物流企业技术创新驱动因素及对策研究”(2019021202004)。

摘　　要：物流是一项新兴的、复杂的行业,其在我国国民经济的发展中占据重要地位。现代物流的快速发展,对提高我国的经济实力、调整和优化产业结构起到了重要作用。文章运用多元回归分析法、逐步回归法等,对2005—2023年影响我国物流需求总量的因素进行了实证研究。通过实证发现工农业生产总值会对物流需求总量产生显著影响,进而根据实证得出的模型预测出我国社会物流总需求量,进而调整国民经济结构,优化资源配置。研究对国家宏观调控政策的制订与执行,以及我国的经济发展具有重大的现实意义,另外对提升物流需求的质和量提出了针对性的建议。Logistics is a new and complex industry,which plays an important role in the development of China's national economy.The rapid development of modern logistics plays an important role in improving the economic strength of China,adjusting and optimizing industrial structure.This paper makes an empirical study on the factors affecting the total logistics demand in China from 2005 to 2023 by using multiple regression analysis and step-to-step regression method.According to the empirical findings,the gross industrial and agricultural production has a significant impact on the total logistics demand,and then according to the empirical model,the total social logistics demand of China is predicted to adjust the national economic structure and optimize the reasonable allocation of resources.It is of great practical significance to the formulation and implementation of the national macro-control policy and the economic development of China.In addition,it puts forward targeted suggestions for improving the quality and quantity of logistics demand.

关 键 词：物流需求总量 多元线性回归 物流需求影响因素 物流需求预测 物流发展与对策 

分 类 号：F251[经济管理—国民经济]