A New Approach for the Calculation of Slope Failure Probability with Fuzzy Limit-State Functions  

作　　者：Jianing Hao Dan Yang Guanxiong Ren Ying Zhao Rangling Cao 

机构地区：[1]Department of Engineering Management,Sichuan College of Architectural Technology,Deyang,61800,China [2]Department of Transport and Municipal Engneering,Sichuan College of Architectural Technology,Deyang,61800,China [3]Department of Basic Teaching,Sichuan College of Architectural Technology,Deyang,61800,China [4]Sichuan Hongye Construction Software Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu,610081,China

出　　处：《Fluid Dynamics & Materials Processing》2025年第1期141-159,共19页流体力学与材料加工(英文)

基　　金：Ministry of Education,Center for Scientific Research and Development of Higher Education Institutions“Innovative Application of Virtual Simulation Technology in Vocational Education Teaching”Special Project,Project No.ZJXF2022110.

摘　　要：This study presents an innovative approach to calculating the failure probability of slopes by incorporating fuzzylimit-state functions,a method that significantly enhances the accuracy and efficiency of slope stability analysis.Unlike traditional probabilistic techniques,this approach utilizes a least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)optimized with a grey wolf optimizer(GWO)and K-fold cross-validation(CV)to approximate the limit-statefunction,thus reducing computational complexity.The novelty of this work lies in its application to one-dimensional(1D),two-dimensional(2D),and three-dimensional(3D)slope models,demonstrating its versatility andhigh precision.The proposed method consistently achieves error margins within 3%of Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)results,while substantially reducing computation time,particularly for 2D and 3D models.This makes theapproach highly practical for real-world engineering applications.Furthermore,by applying fuzzy mathematics tohandle uncertainties in geotechnical properties,the method offers a more realistic and comprehensive understandingof slope stability.As water is the main factor influencing the stability of slopes,this aspect is investigatedby calculating the phreatic line after the change in water level.Relevant examples are used to show that the failureprobability of a slope under water wading condition can increase by more than 20%(increase rates in 1D,2D and3D conditions being 25%,27%and 31%,respectively)compared with the natural condition.The influence ofdiverse fuzzy membership functions—linear,normal,and Cauchy—on failure probability is also considered.Thisresearch not only provides a strategy for better calculation of the slope failure probability but also pioneers theintegration of computational intelligence,fuzzy logic and fluid-dynamics in geotechnical engineering,presentingan innovative and efficient tool for slope stability analysis.

关 键 词：Least Squares Support Vector Machine(LSSVM) Grey Wolf Optimizer(GWO) slope stability analysis fuzzy set theory failure probability estimation 

分 类 号：O15[理学—数学]