基于系统动力学的典型区域生态安全变化特征及情景模拟——以贵州省铜仁市为例  

Characteristics and scenario simulation of typical regional ecological security changes based on system dynamics:a case study of Tongren City,Guizhou Province

作　　者：杨恒 陶军[1,2] 刘世梁[3] YANG Heng;TAO Jun;LIU Shiliang(Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance,Beijing Normal University,Zhuhai 519087,China;School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学教育部巨灾模拟与系统性风险应对国际合作联合实验室,珠海519087 [2]北京师范大学国家安全与应急管理学院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第2期554-566,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFF1303204)。

摘　　要：以贵州省铜仁市为研究对象,建立生态安全评价“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型框架,运用系统动力学理论建立铜仁市生态安全系统仿真模型,开展2005—2020年铜仁市生态安全评估,揭示其时空演变规律,阐明铜仁市生态安全的影响因素。设定自然增长型、可持续发展型和资源衰竭型三类情景,模拟铜仁市2020—2035年的生态安全时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)2005—2015年,铜仁市平均生态安全指数增加14.34%,其中80%的区县生态安全指数呈上升趋势;2015—2020年,除万山区和江口县外,其它8个区县生态安全指数降低,铜仁市生态安全平均指数降低7.18%。(2)林业增加值和环保资金投入是铜仁市生态安全的主要影响因素,而城镇化水平、废水排放量是造成铜仁市生态安全指数下降的主要影响原因。(3)可持续发展情景下铜仁市生态安全上升,资源衰竭型情景下生态安全下降。该地区实施旅游城镇化策略、平衡资源开发与保护、开展生态环境修复等措施能够有针对性地应对未来不同发展情景下的挑战。Taking Tongren City in Guizhou Province as the research object,we establish an ecological security evaluation framework based on the PSR(Pressure-State-Response)model.Using system dynamics theory,we construct a simulation model of the ecological security system for Tongren City and conduct a comprehensive assessment of its ecological security from 2005 to 2020.This study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and elucidate the influencing factors of ecological security in Tongren City.The research involves analyzing various indicators to understand the pressures,states,and responses within the ecological security framework.We incorporate data from multiple sources,including environmental,economic,and social parameters,to ensure a holistic evaluation.The assessment period from 2005 to 2020 provides insights into how ecological security has evolved over time and the factors that have contributed to these changes.Specifically,the analysis focuses on changes in land use,forest cover,water quality,and pollution levels.Our findings indicate that from 2005 to 2015,the average ecological security index in Tongren City increased by 14.34%,with 80%of the districts and counties showing an upward trend.This improvement can be attributed to enhanced environmental policies,increased investment in ecological protection measures,and improved public awareness and participation in environmental conservation efforts.However,from 2015 to 2020,the ecological security index decreased in all districts and counties except Wanshan District and Jiangkou County,with the average index dropping by 7.18%.This decline highlights emerging challenges such as rapid urbanization,industrialization pressures,and inadequate wastewater management,which have adversely impacted ecological security.The study identifies the added value of forestry and investment in environmental protection as the main factors positively influencing ecological security in Tongren City.Increased forestry activities have contributed to better air quality and bi

关 键 词：系统动力学 生态安全 情景模拟 “压力-状态-响应”(PSR) 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]