退休对城镇家庭金融脆弱性的冲击  

The Impact of Retirement on the Financial Vulnerability of Urban Households

作　　者：龙海明[1] 闫文哲 LONG Haiming;YAN Wenzhe(Hunan University,Changsha,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,410079

出　　处：《经济学动态》2024年第12期128-140,共13页Economic Perspectives

摘　　要：基于人口快速老龄化这一背景,采用中国家庭金融调查数据,实证分析了退休对我国城镇家庭金融脆弱性的影响及其作用机理。研究表明:退休对城镇家庭金融脆弱性存在显著的正向冲击,即退休会提高家庭金融脆弱性程度和削弱风险应对能力,这一结论在经过系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。机制检验显示,退休会对居民金融素养和家庭收入产生负向冲击,从而增加家庭金融脆弱性。异质性分析表明,对低人力资本以及未购买商业养老保险的家庭而言,退休对其家庭金融脆弱性的正向冲击更大。本文的研究结论为优化退休政策设计、减小老年家庭金融风险提供参考。Population aging has a huge impact on economic and social development and significantly changes the economic and financial behavior of households.At the end of 2023,the proportion of people aged 60 and above in China had reached 21.1%,and the proportion of the population aged 65 years and above had reached 15.4%,indicating that China has already entered a profoundly aging society.As a result,it will certainly lead to a steep increase in the burden of household old-age care.Due to the finiteness of economic resources,the increase in the elderly population will decrease the household labor income,and increase health care and pension consumption and other rigid expenditures,thus reducing the degree of financial freedom of households,crowding out the liquidity of the household asset allocation,and resulting in the elderly households being difficult to cope with the impact of unanticipated risks,showing financial vulnerability.As an important perspective for measuring household financial risk,household financial vulnerability usually refers to the possibility of falling into financial distress because of the inability to absorb risky shocks.For households experiencing retirement shocks,limited precautionary savings and a significant income decline reduce their ability to cope with uncertainty shocks,and the level of financial vulnerability rises.It is worth noting that China's special economic environment and household structure make the impact of retirement on household financial vulnerability more significant.Firstly,population aging in China has the characteristics of“getting old before getting rich”,which is manifested in the relatively low level of social security and pension wealth reserves.Secondly,China's traditional cultural concepts and unique household structure determine that a large part of the household's savings will be used for future certain expenditures,which will have a“crowding-out effect”on the household's retirement reserves.Unsurprisingly,if retirement shocks can affect household financi

关 键 词：退休 城镇家庭 家庭金融脆弱性 模糊断点回归 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]