债务空间的动态最优配置——兼论谨慎债务政策的必要性  

The Dynamic Optimal Allocation of Public Debt Space:The Necessity of Prudent Debt Policies

作　　者：王丽媛 程鹏 郑新业[1] WANG Li-yuan;CHENG Peng;ZHENG Xin-ye(School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China;Shandong Provincial Department of Finance)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院 [2]山东省财政厅

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第12期24-42,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“统筹推进‘双碳’目标与经济社会协同发展的中国经济学理论与政策研究”(批准号23ZDA110)。

摘　　要：政府债务空间是稀缺且重要的战略性公共资源,提升政府债务空间的动态配置效率是重大而急迫的任务。本文构建了政府债务空间动态配置的理论模型,并使用数值模拟方法评估了重要因素对举债最优路径的影响。研究发现,政府举债面临“机会成本”,当期多发行1单位债务可以刺激总需求,但也意味着未来可用的债务空间就减少1单位,因而有限债务空间的动态最优配置应满足“代际作用均等化”原则。本文还评估了政府债务空间的外生变化、贴现率以及债务投资管理水平、技术进步等因素对举债最优路径的影响,并基于中国现实数据进行参数赋值和校准,模拟了中国2050年前债务空间的最优配置路径。结果表明,中国未来的发债轨迹需要保持凸增长的趋势,即政府应采取谨慎的债务政策,将债务空间的使用时间适当后置。考虑到政府对中长期发展目标的重视、未来时期政府债务的政策价值以及经济发展过程中的附加红利,应进一步将更多的债务空间留至后期使用。本文的研究揭示了政府债务空间动态配置的最优原则,在理论上为有关政府债务的争论提供了新视角,在实践上为统筹不同发展阶段的政府债务需求以及政府债务“稳增长”和“防风险”的双重目标提供了重要参考。In recent years, global debt levels have risen sharply due to the impacts of the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments worldwide face the dual challenge of leveraging debt to stimulate economic growth while maintaining fiscal sustainability. Within the realm of academic research, debates on government debt have predominantly focused on the overall scale of debt, while neglecting the long-term implications of the dynamic trajectory of government debt on economic outcomes.This paper constructs a theoretical model for the dynamic allocation of public debt space, grounded in the limited nature of debt space and the factors influencing government borrowing decisions. Using theoretical analyses and numerical simulations, this paper identifies the optimal principle guiding the dynamic allocation of government debt space and evaluates the impact of factors such as exogenous changes in debt space, discount rates, debt investment efficiency, and technological progress on the optimal trajectory. This paper further calibrates the model with real data from China to simulate the optimal dynamic allocation trajectory of public debt space up to 2050. The findings show that the dynamic allocation of government debt must follow the principle of “intergenerational equalization of marginal effects”, meaning that the present value of the marginal effects of debt issuance should be equal across different periods. Based on this principle, the optimal debt issuance path for the Chinese government should follow a convex growth pattern, which is characterized by cautiously borrowing in the early stages to preserve debt space for later use. In addition, considering China's current stage of development and future government debt demands, the allocation of debt space should be further deferred to later periods.Compared to existing research, this paper makes several contributions. First, from the perspective of normative economics, it extends conventional research on government debt by adopting a dynamic framework to stu

关 键 词：政府债务空间 动态最优配置 代际均等 谨慎债务政策 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]