考虑共因失效的复杂机载电子系统失效概率算法研究  

On Complex Airborne Electronic System Failure Probability Caculation with Common Cause Failure Consideration

作　　者：孙紫荆 刘文 刘媛 吴雨婷 SUN Zijing;LIU Wen;LIU Yuan;WU Yuting(Aeronautics Computing Technique Research Institute AVIC,Xi'an 710000 China)

机构地区：[1]中国航空工业集团公司西安航空计算技术研究所,西安710000

出　　处：《电光与控制》2025年第2期93-97,102,共6页Electronics Optics & Control

摘　　要：民机机载电子系统呈现复杂化、综合化的特点,共因失效将破坏系统中失效事件的独立性,可能导致定量安全性评估的结果存在偏差。针对当前民机领域普遍采用定性方法分析共因失效时极大依赖评估人员工程经验的问题,提出一种考虑共因失效的复杂机载电子系统失效概率算法。首先,采用Alpha因子模型对共因失效进行量化;接着,将其引入到基于独立性假设的故障树模型中进行优化;最后,以典型复杂机载电子系统的失效状态为例,对比考虑和不考虑共因失效情况下的失效概率。结果表明:共因失效将对复杂机载电子系统的定量安全性评估结果产生两个数量级的误差影响,本文方法能够实现共因失效问题的量化,可为民机型号复杂机载电子系统的进一步深化应用提供技术支撑。The airborne electronic systems of civil aircraft exhibit complex and comprehensive characteristics and common cause failures will undermine the independence of failure events in the system which may lead to deviations in the results of quantitative safety assessment.Aiming at the current problem of analyzing common cause failures by qualitative methods in the field of civil aircraft which relies heavily on the engineering experience of the evaluators a failure probability algorithm for complex airborne electronic systems considering common cause failure is proposed.Firstly an Alpha factor model is used to quantify the common cause failures.Then it is integrated into the fault tree model based on the independence assumption to optimize it.Finally taking the failure state of a typical complex airborne electronic system as an example the failure probability with or without common cause failure is compared with each other.The results show that the common cause failure will have two orders of magnitude error influence on the quantitative safety evaluation results of complex airborne electronic systems and the proposed method can quantify the common cause failure problem which may provide a technical support for the further application of complex airborne electronic system of civil aircraft.

关 键 词：共因失效 民机 机载电子系统 失效概率 Alpha因子模型 

分 类 号：V243[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]