基于PSR与云模型的重要耕地后备资源区水资源能源粮食协同安全评价  

Evaluation of water-energy-food synergistic security in important reserve resource for arable land regions based on PSR and cloud model

作　　者：贺正齐 周到 张振扬 费义涵 HE Zhengqi;ZHOU Dao;ZHANG Zhenyang;FEI Yihan(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University,Changzhou 213200,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [2]江苏省“世界水谷”与水生态文明协同创新中心,江苏南京211100 [3]河海大学经济与金融学院,江苏常州213200

出　　处：《水利经济》2025年第1期26-31,47,共7页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21CGL064);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B220201056)。

摘　　要：基于水资源、能源、粮食三大战略性基础资源在重要耕地后备资源区的复杂关联关系,开展水资源能源粮食协同安全评价研究。以我国盐碱地这一重要耕地后备资源为研究对象,采用PSR分析法建立典型盐碱地区水资源能源粮食协同安全评价指标体系,综合运用云模型、可变模糊识别模型,构建典型盐碱地区水资源能源粮食协同安全评价模型,并将其应用于典型盐碱地区东营市。结果表明:东营市水资源能源粮食协同安全水平呈现逐步上升的趋势,水资源的相对短缺及其在农业生产与能源开采中的合理配置是影响三者协同安全水平的重要因素。从加强水资源的合理配置、因地制宜开展耕地后备资源区盐碱化改造两个方面,针对性地提出了提升盐碱地区水资源能源粮食协同安全的对策建议。Based on the complex interrelationships among the three strategic basic resources of water,energy and food in important cultivated land reserve areas,a collaborative security evaluation study of water-energy-food was carried out in this paper.Focusing on saline-alkali land,an important cultivated land reserve resource in China,the PSR analysis method was adopted to establish a collaborative security evaluation index system for water-energy-food in typical saline-alkali region.The cloud model and variable fuzzy recognition model were comprehensively applied to construct a collaborative security evaluation model for water-energy-food in typical saline-alkali areas,and the model is applied in Dongying City,a typical saline-alkali area,as an example.The results show that the collaborative security level of water-energy-food in Dongying City shows a gradually rising trend.The relative shortage of water resources and their rational allocation in agricultural production and energy extraction are important factors affecting the collaborative security level of the three.Accordingly,countermeasures and suggestions for improving the collaborative security of water-energy-food in saline-alkali areas are put forward from two aspects:strengthening the rational allocation of water resources and carrying out saline-alkali land transformation in cultivated land reserve areas according to local conditions.

关 键 词：耕地后备资源 盐碱地区 水资源能源粮食协同安全 PSR模型 云模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济] TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]