1991-2020年渭河流域水文气象要素变化分析  

Analysis of hydro-logic meteorological elements in the Weihe River Basin from 1991 to 2020

作　　者：刘博文 王江伟 于晶 庞博 代光烁 LIU Bo-wen;WANG Jiang-wei;YU Jing;PANG Bo;DAI Guang-shuo(Zhongke Xingtu Weitianxin Technology Co.,Ltd.,,Beijing 100089,China)

机构地区：[1]中科星图维天信科技股份有限公司,北京100089

出　　处：《地下水》2024年第6期244-248,共5页Ground water

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“下一代碳卫星及全球碳盘点科学产品与应用”(2023YFB3907400)。

摘　　要：基于渭河流域过去30年水文气象资料,应用不均匀系数法、M-K检验、R/S分析、线性回归分析等方法对渭河流域水文气象要素变化特征进行了综合研究。结果表明:气温年内分配格局基本稳定,降水和径流年内分配不均匀,分配格局较不稳定,渭河流域有干旱期愈干旱,雨季雨水愈充沛的趋势。在过去30 a,渭河流域年平均气温经历了“剧烈波动-快速上升-稳定波动”的变化,气温年际变化率为0.25℃/10a,年降水量增加趋势明显,年际变化率为34.87 mm/10a,年径流量呈显著减小趋势但同时伴随突然反弹现象,年际变化速率为-31.68亿m^(3)/10a。未来几年,气温、降水年际变化趋势有反持续性,径流保持弱持续性,年平均气温平稳波动状态可能被打破,将可能升高或降低,年降水不再继续增加,将可能呈平稳波动状态或减少,年径流可能继续减少。降水与径流之间的相关性强于气温与径流的相关性,5-10月降水与径流显著正相关,降水是影响渭河流域径流变化的主导性因素。Based on the hydro-logic meteorological data of the Weihe River Basin over the past 30 years,the uneven coefficient method,Mann-Kendall test,R/S analysis,linear regression analysis and other methods were used to comprehensively study the characteristics of changes in hydrological and meteorological elements in the Weihe River Basin.The results show that:the annual temperature distribution pattern is basically stable,while the annual precipitation and runoff distribution are uneven and the distribution pattern is relatively unstable.The Weihe River Basin shows a trend of becoming increasingly dry during drought periods and experiencing more abundant rain during rainy seasons.Over the past 30 years,the annual average temperature has undergone a change from"sharp fluctuations to rapid increases to stable fluctuations".The annual temperature change rate is 0.25℃/10 a,the annual precipitation has increased significantly with an annual change rate of 34.87 mm/10 a,and the annual runoff has shown a significant decreasing trend but with sudden rebound phenomena.The annual change rate is-31.68 billion m^(3)/10 a.In the future,the inter-annual change trend of temperature and precipitation has anti-persistence,while runoff maintains weak persistence.The stable fluctuation state of the annual average temperature may be broken,which may increase or decrease.The annual precipitation may no longer continue to increase and may experience a stable fluctuation state or decrease.The annual runoff may continue to decrease.The correlation between precipitation and runoff is stronger than that between temperature and runoff.From May to October,precipitation is significantly positively correlated with runoff,making it the dominant factor affecting runoff changes in the Weihe River Basin.

关 键 词：渭河流域 水文气象 趋势性 持续性 相关性 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV121.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]