Projections of future tropical cyclone landfalling activity in the East Asia region  

作　　者：Kin Sik Liu Johnny C.L.Chan Bruce Chong Homan Wong 

机构地区：[1]Ove Arup&Partners Hong Kong Limited,Hong Kong,China [2]School of Energy and Environment,City University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China [3]Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai,China [4]Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center,Shanghai,China

出　　处：《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》2024年第4期328-343,共16页热带气旋研究与评论(英文版)

摘　　要：This study reveals the possible future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)landfalling activity along the East Asian coast under different climate change scenarios based on global circulation model(GCM)simulations.Wefirst identify those GCMs that have the“best”performance in simulating the TC activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)during the current climate(1979–2014)by examining the simulated TCs in each of the GCMs and then compare these simulated TCs with the observed TC climatological features of annual frequency,track densities and genesis locations.Based on such comparisons,we have identifiedfive(TaiESM1,EC-Earth3,ACCESS-CM2,ACCESS-ESM1-5 and HadGEM3-GC31-LL)models among all the available GCMs.A multi-model ensemble gives a further improvement when compared with observations.Future projections from some of these models are then used to identify the frequency of TC activity over the entire WNP as well as landfalling TCs in six East Asia coastal regions under two climate change scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for two periods,2041-70 and 2071-2100.A bias-correction method is also applied to the projected intensity of these landfalling TCs to estimate the landfall intensity.In general,these GCMs project a possible decrease in TC genesis frequency over the entire WNP,consistent with the results of most of the other studies.At mid-century,decreases in TC genesis frequency are projected to be around 10%for both scenarios.Towards the end of the century,the decreases will be more significant,with the percentage changes of 14.9%(SSP2-4.5)and 22.4%(SSP5-8.5).For landfalling TCs,the northern part of the East Asian coast will likely have an increase in frequency,ranging from 17 to 60%but a decrease of 14–27%in the southern part.In general,the average intensity of landfalling TCs will likely increase although the percentages are not large,ranging from 2 to 14%.

关 键 词：Tropical cyclone projections Climate model simulations Western North Pacific 

分 类 号：P73[天文地球—海洋科学]