1960~2018年江淮地区极端降水特征及城市化影响  

Extreme Precipitation Characteristics and Impacts of Urbanization in the Jianghuai Region from 1960 to 2018

作　　者：张蜜 尹义星[1] 张鹏 毛媛媛 乔楠 陈莹[3] ZHANG Mi;YIN Yi-xing;ZHANG Peng;MAO Yuan-yuan;QIAO Nan;CHEN Ying(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 224000,China;Office of Water Resources Engineering Planning,Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210029,China;Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京224000 [2]江苏省水利工程规划办公室,江苏南京210029 [3]福建师范大学,福建福州350007

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2024年第12期2743-2753,共11页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：江苏省水利科技项目(2023007);“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金(2021491311);福建省科技厅社会发展引导性项目(2022Y0007)。

摘　　要：江淮地区夏季极端降水频发且城市化水平较高,城市化背景下的极端降水特征、趋势及影响机理研究尚存在不足。基于江淮地区1960~2018年305个气象站点的日降水资料,分析区域极端降水的时空演变特征,对比极端降水的城郊差异来分析城市化对极端降水的影响,进一步计算和对比城郊站点的Clausius-Clapeyron标度、典型极端降水期间的物理参数,分析期间大气稳定度和水汽条件的城郊差异,从而探究城市化对极端降水的影响机制。城郊对比分析中,使用土地利用类型和夜间灯光数据,严格划分城市站点和郊区站点。结果表明:(1)江淮地区极端降水呈中南部高、西北部和东南部较低的特征;极端降水指数显著上升的站点集中在苏南、浙北和上海地区。(2)极端降水存在由城市小于郊区转为城市大于郊区的特征,城市化对各极端降水指数的贡献率均为正值,均达到35%以上,城市站点极端降水对温度的响应更为敏感。(3)物理参数的分析表明,城市化对极端降水的影响是由于城市热岛的增温效应,引发上升运动,导致大气不稳定性增加和水汽增多,有利于对流的触发,从而促使极端降水的发生。The Jianghuai Region is situated at the boundary of the north and south rainfall belts in China.This region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events.Nevertheless,research on the characteristics,trends,and mechanisms of extreme precipitation in the context of urbanization is still insufficient.Based on the daily precipitation data from 305 stations in the study area from 1960 to 2018,this study analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation,and compared the differences in extreme precipitation between urban and suburban stations to investigate the relative impacts of urbanization.To further explore the mechanisms behind the influence of urbanization,this study also compared the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of urban and suburban stations.In addition,the differences in atmospheric stability and water vapor conditions between urban and suburban stations during typical extreme precipitation events were also analyzed by computing physical parameters.Land use types and nighttime lights data were used to rigorously differentiate urban stations from suburban stations.The results showed that:(1)Extreme precipitation in the study area exhibited distinct spatial variations.The area with a significant increasing trend in the extreme precipitation indices was concentrated in southern Jiangsu,northern Zhejiang,and Shanghai.(2)With the development of urbanization,there was a trend of shifting from negative to positive in the urban-suburban difference in extreme precipitation.Contribution of urbanization was positive for all the extreme precipitation indices,with a rate exceeding 35%for all cases.The data in urban stations exhibited a more sensitive response to temperature.(3)The analysis of physical parameters indicated that the influence of urbanization on extreme precipitation might be attributed to the warming effect of the urban heat islands.These heat islands triggered upward motion of air,increased atmospheric instability,and enhanced water vapor content,which facilitated convective proce

关 键 词：极端降水 城市化 城市热岛 江淮地区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]