多情景下的全球海平面指纹演化研究  

The evolution of global sea level fingerprints under multiplescenarios

作　　者：刘宇欣 邓珊珊 张雯茜 胡安戈 Liu Yuxin;Deng Shanshan;Zhang Wenxi;Hu Ange(Guangxi Laboratory on the Study of Coral Reefs in the South China Sea,Nanning 530004,China;Coral Reef Research Center of China,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;School of Marine Sciences,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)

机构地区：[1]广西南海珊瑚礁研究重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学珊瑚礁研究中心,广西南宁530004 [3]广西大学海洋学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《海洋学报》2024年第10期1-15,共15页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42201024);广西自然科学基金(2024GXNSFBA010158);广西科技基地和人才专项基金(桂科AD23026069)。

摘　　要：气候变化背景下,区域质量海平面变化速率不一。其中,陆地向海水输送的淡水在负荷自吸效应与极移反馈共同作用下形成质量海平面的时空异质性变化,即海平面指纹,是质量海平面中的重要组成部分。本文利用三套陆地水储量异常数据,采用考虑负荷自吸效应与极移反馈的海平面方程,模拟3种情景下的海平面指纹,分别为:(1)吻合实际冰川物质平衡的情景;(2)吻合近期气候变化速率的情景;(3)仅考虑气候自然变率的情景。基于模拟结果,分析多情景下海平面指纹的演化特征,并评估其对观测质量海平面异常的贡献。研究表明:格陵兰岛、阿拉斯加、高加索及中东地区、南安第斯山脉和南极洲等地区的冰川消融主导海平面指纹的趋势项。吻合实际冰川物质平衡的情景能更好地再现观测质量海平面异常趋势项的全球分布格局,表现为与GRACE/GRACE-FO结果的空间相似系数为0.31、与测高卫星结果的空间相似系数为0.71。非冰川区域陆地水储量异常则更好地再现观测质量海平面异常的振幅项,表现为仅考虑气候自然变率情景下的海平面指纹与GRACE/GRACEFO结果的空间相似系数为0.67、与测高卫星结果的空间相似系数为0.84。低纬海域质量海平面异常主要贡献源是海平面指纹。Under the backdrop of climate change,mass sea level change rates are varied across regions.Therein,under the combined effect of the self-attraction and loading effect and polar motion feedback,freshwater transported from land to sea resulted in the spatiotemporal heterogeneous change of mass sea level,termed sea level fingerprints.The sea level fingerprints are important components of mass sea level.This study utilized three terrestrial water storage anomalies datasets to simulate sea level fingerprints under three scenarios,following a sea level equation that incorporated the self-attraction and loading effect along with polar motion feedback.The simulated scenarios were:(1)aligning with the actual glacial mass balance;(2)consistent with the recent climate change rates;(3)considering climate natural variability alone.Based on simulation results,this study analyzed the evolution ofsea level fingerprints under multiple scenarios and assessed their contribution to observed mass sea level anomalies.The study revealed that glacier melting in regions such as Greenland,Alaska,the Caucasus and Middle East,the Southern Andes,and Antarctica dominated the trend term of sea level fingerprints.The sea level fingerprints,which align with the actual glacier mass balance,better replicated the global distribution pattern of the observed mass sea level anomalies trend term,as shown by the spatial similarity coefficients of 0.31 with the GRACE/GRACE-FO results and 0.71 with the altimetry satellite results.Non-glacial regional terrestrial water storage anomalies better captured the amplitude term of the observed mass sea level anomalies,as shown by sea level fingerprints,which consider climate natural variability alone,having spatial similarity coefficients of 0.67 with the GRACE/GRACE-FO results and 0.84 with the altimetry satellite results.The sea level fingerprints were the primary contributing source to mass sea level anomalies in low-latitude regions.

关 键 词：海平面指纹 海平面方程 多情景 

分 类 号：P941.8[天文地球—自然地理学]