考虑双渠道供应链成员减排效果过度自信的碳减排决策研究  

Research on emission reduction decision with members'overconfidence in emission reduction effect of dual-channel supply chain

作　　者：曹细玉[1] 吴晓志[1] 黄怡萌 CAO Xiyu;WU Xiaozhi;HUANG Yimeng(Zhongshan Institute,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Zhongshan 528402,Guangdong,China;School of Management and Economics,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu 611731,China)

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学中山学院,广东中山528402 [2]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都611731

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期70-82,共13页Journal of Central China Normal University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：广东省普通高校特色创新类项目(2019WTSCX139);教育部人文社科规划项目(19YJC630185);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD23CGL03).

摘　　要：为探讨双渠道供应链成员减排效果过度自信对碳减排决策及双渠道供应链成员利润的影响,考虑由制造商、零售商组成的一个双渠道供应链,分别针对零售商、制造商完全理性和过度自信组合的四种情形构建博弈模型,给出了四种情形的最优决策,比较分析了三种过度自信情形与双方都完全理性情形的最优减排率大小以及最优减排率与过度自信系数的关系.研究结果表明:无论过度自信系数如何变化,最优减排率和制造商利润,只要制造商过度自信则都会增大,但如果只有零售商过度自信则都会减少;零售商的利润,在只有制造商过度自信时会减小而在只有零售商过度自信时会增大.四种情形下的最优减排率都与偏好线下零售渠道的消费者所占比例成负相关关系,而与渠道间的交叉价格弹性系数、低碳偏好系数成正相关关系.In order to explore the impact of members'overconfidence in the emission reduction effect of dual-channel supply chain on carbon emission reduction decisions and the profits of these members,a dual-channel supply chain consisting of manufacturer and retailer is considered.The game models are constructed respectively for the combination of retailers and manufacturers with complete rationality and overconfidence,and the optimal decisions of the four situations are given.The optimal emission reduction rate is compared between the three overconfidence situations and the perfectly rational situation of both sides,and the relationship between the optimal emission reduction rate and the overconfidence coefficient is analyzed.The results show that no matter how the overconfidence coefficient changes,the optimal emission reduction rate and manufacturer's profit increase when the manufacturer has overconfidence,but decrease when only the retailer has overconfidence.Retailers'profits increase when only the retailer is overconfident and decrease when only the manufacturer is overconfident.In the four situations,the optimal emission reduction rate is negatively correlated with the proportion of consumers who prefer offline retail channels,but positively correlated with the cross-price elasticity coefficient among channels and low-carbon preference coefficient.

关 键 词：双渠道供应链 减排决策 过度自信 低碳偏好 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]