敏感工业用户电压暂降经济损失风险评估的模糊推理方法  

A Fuzzy Inference Method for Assessing the Risk of Economic Losses of Voltage Transients for Sensitive Industrial Users

作　　者：陈堃 王艳巧 仲振 杨斌 杨永标 宋嘉启 CHEN Kun;WANG Yanqiao;ZHONG Zhen;YANG Bin;YANG Yongbiao;SONG Jiaqi(Nanjing Power Supply Company,State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210000,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力有限公司南京供电分公司,南京210000 [2]东南大学电气工程学院,南京210096

出　　处：《哈尔滨理工大学学报》2024年第5期73-83,共11页Journal of Harbin University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国网江苏省电力有限公司重点科技项目(J2021001);江苏省重点研发计划项目(BE2020688)。

摘　　要：电压暂降已成为目前影响客户侧优质供电的重要电能质量事件,准确评估敏感工业用户暂降发生后的经济损失是开展治理工作的关键。针对复杂工业过程中的暂降事件,首先以设备组合电压耐受曲线和过程免疫时间为特征参数,基于Mamdani算法刻画了暂降特征与子过程失效概率间的模糊关系,实现了暂降事件的分类模糊化处理,并计算出子过程失效概率的确切值。然后根据用户供电系统的拓扑结构及暂降发生的物理位置判断出实际受扰设备,修正传统故障树得到了改良的过程故障树,并基于此建立起暂降特征参数与用户经济损失间的数学关系。最后通过对江苏省某光学中心精密温控系统的仿真分析,验证了所提方法的准确性和鲁棒性。所得结论可为敏感用户在工业过程中有效评估暂降经济损失和供电公司优化供电方案提供重要参考。Voltage transients have become an important power quality event affecting quality power supply on the customer side,and accurate assessment of the economic loss of industrial users after the occurrence of sags is the key to carrying out the management work.For the temporary drop events in complex industrial processes,this paper firstly takes the voltage tolerance curve(VTC)of equipment combination and process immunity time(PIT)as the characteristic parameters,portrays the fuzzy relationship between the temporary drop characteristics and sub-process failure probability based on Mamdani algorithm,realizes the classification fuzzification of temporary drop events,and calculates the exact value of sub-process failure probability.Then,the actual disturbed devices are judged according to the topology of the customer′s power supply system and the physical location where the transients occur,and the traditional fault tree is modified to obtain a modified process fault tree,based on which the mathematical relationship between the transient characteristic parameters and the economic loss of the customer is established.Finally,the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method are verified by simulating and analyzing the precision temperature control system of an optical center in Jiangsu Province.The conclusions obtained can provide important references for sensitive customers to effectively assess temporary economic losses in industrial processes and for power supply companies to optimize their power supply schemes.

关 键 词：电压暂降 工业过程风险评估 模糊推理 改良的过程故障树 过程免疫时间 电压耐受曲线 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]