重大风险冲击下财政政策与货币政策的搭配协调效应  

The Combined and Coordinated Effect of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Response to Significant Risk Shocks

作　　者：杨翱 陈国进[2,3] 赵向琴 熊琛[4] Yang Ao;Chen Guojin;Zhao Xiangqin;Xiong Chen(College of Economics,Shenzhen University;School of Economics,Xiamen University;The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University;Economics and Management School,Wuhan University)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学经济学院 [2]厦门大学经济学院 [3]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院 [4]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2024年第12期36-47,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“罕见灾难冲击、宏观经济下行与宏观经济政策调控研究”(20&ZD055);国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融不确定性冲击和宏观经济下行风险管理”(72171201);国家自然科学基金青年项目“地方政府隐性债务风险的区域间传染效应研究”(72203161);广东省基础与应用基础研究青年基金项目“气候变化金融风险效应的测度、传导机制分析与结构性货币政策应对”(2022A1515110469);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“时变灾难风险的经济波动效应与宏观经济政策应对研究”(22YJC790151);广东省哲学社会科学规划学科共建项目“灾难冲击的系统性金融风险效应与宏观审慎政策应对研究”(GD23XYJ85);深圳市高等院校稳定支持计划面上项目“‘双碳’目标下清洁能源转换效率测度与财政政策研究”(20220807184432001)资助。

摘　　要：经济运行常常因为受到自然灾害、战争等重大风险冲击的影响而表现出剧烈波动。本文在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型中引入重大风险冲击,比较下调消费税、下调资本所得税、下调劳动所得税、增加政府支出、常规宽松货币政策、渐进型宽松货币政策以及对应的财政政策与货币政策搭配协调对重大风险冲击的调控效果。研究发现:第一,重大风险冲击导致经济下行、加剧通货膨胀并抬升政府债务杠杆。第二,相对于积极财政政策,宽松货币政策对重大风险冲击的调控效果更明显。第三,货币政策与财政政策进行协调时,积极财政政策对重大风险冲击的调控效果更强,导致社会福利损失更小。本文建议在应对重大风险冲击的过程中,协调政策部门的政策目标,通过发挥财政政策与货币政策的联动作用,削弱重大风险冲击的不利影响,保障经济平稳运行。The Chinese economy is transitioning from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality developmentstage.Economic transformation refers to the evolution of economic development towards a higher level and a more complexstructure,during which the impact of risk shocks on economy is also deepening.How to understand the formation mechanismof significant risk shocks correctly and effectively address them is of great significance for national economic security.Under the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,this paper analyzes the regulatory effects of reducingconsumption tax,reducing capital income tax,lowering labor tax,increasing government expenditure,quantitative easingmonetary policy and price easing monetary policy,as well as combining fiscal and monetary policies,on significant riskshocks.The results show that:firstly,significant risk shocks cause economic downturn,exacerbate inflation,and increase governmentdebt leverage.Secondly,compared to reducing consumption tax,capital income tax and labor income tax,increasing governmentspending has the most effective effect on improving output.However,its negative impact is that it leads to higher inflationand government debt leverage.Thirdly,compared to active fiscal policies,easing monetary policies are more effective atcontrolling significant risk shocks,leading to less government debt risk and more serious inflation.Fourthly,active fiscal policieshave stronger effect on regulating significant risk shocks and lead to fewer social welfare losses when monetary policies respondto fiscal policies.The conclusion of this article has three implications.Firstly,from the perspective of fiscal revenue,the government shouldstrengthen research on counter-cyclical regulation and optimize tax reduction and fee reduction policies.From the perspectiveof fiscal expenditure,the government should optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure,improve the effectiveness of policyfunding.Secondly,the central bank determines the interest rate level by referrin

关 键 词：重大风险冲击 财政政策 货币政策 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学]