混合公债视域下专项债的风险研究  

A Study on the Risk of Special-Purpose Bonds from the Perspective of Mixed Public Bonds

作　　者：毛捷[1] 柏金春 Mao Jie;Bai Jinchun(School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2024年第12期71-83,共13页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“专项债的可持续性研究:数据构建、理论分析和效应检验”(72473016);国家社会科学基金项目“中国地方政府债务治理研究:理论框架和政策路径”(23VRC045)资助。

摘　　要：防范化解地方债务风险是我国财政金融工作的重点和难点。党的二十届三中全会提出,完善政府债务管理制度,建立全口径地方债务监测监管体系和防范化解隐性债务风险长效机制。本文在混合公债这个新的研究视域下,利用2019—2022年专项债项目层级的微观数据,结合“十三五”规划纲要、“十四五”规划纲要等重要政策文件,识别了专项债用途混合、信用混同和风险混杂的特征,并实证检验了上述特征之间的因果关系。研究验证了:第一,信用混同假说。专项债的用途混合导致专项债混同中央和地方政府的信用,表现为专项债支持国家重大战略的项目占比提高会显著降低专项债的二级市场信用利差,扭曲了市场定价机制。第二,风险混杂假说。专项债的用途混合导致专项债风险与融资平台债务风险交织,表现为专项债支持国家重大战略的项目占比提高会显著增加地方融资平台公司的城投债发行规模,加剧了化解地方债务风险的复杂性和难度。本文的研究为理解专项债等地方债务产生风险的内在机理、优化地方债务治理体制机制,以及从防范化解地方债务风险的视角理解超长期特别国债的重要意义提供了新证据。Preventing and resolving local debt risks is currently a focus of fiscal and financial work.The Third Plenary Session of the 2Oth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed improvements to government debt management system,the establishment of a comprehensive local debt monitoring and supervision system,and the creation of a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve hidden debt risks.This study explores the inherent mechanisms of special-purpose bond risk from the perspective of mixed public bonds.Employing microdata at the project level for special-purpose bonds from 2019 to 2022,and integrating important policy documents such as the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan and the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan,the research provides a comprehensive analysis of the mixed usage,complex credit relationship,and blended risks associated with special-purpose bonds.It also empirically examines the causal relationship between these factors.The findings are as follows.Firstly,the mixed usage of special-purpose bonds leads to a blending of the credit of central and local govermments(blended credit).An increase in the proportion of projects supported by special-purpose bonds that align with major national strategies significantly reduces the credit spreads of the secondary market of special-purpose bonds,distorting the market pricing mechanism.This effect is particularly prominent for special-purpose bonds with larger underwriting syndicates and a higher proportion of non-bank underwriters.Scondly,the mixed usage of special-purpose bonds results in the entwining of special-purpose bond risk with the debt risk of local government financing vehicle(blended risk).An increase in the proportion of projects supported by special-purpose bonds that align with major national strategies significantly expands the issuance scale of municipal bonds by local government financing vehicle,thereby exacerbating the complexity and difficulty of addressing local debt risks.This effect is more pronounced in regions with larger fiscal revenue-exp

关 键 词：专项债 混合公债 国家重大战略 信用利差 城投债 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]