新质生产力对税收收入的影响研究  

Research on the Effect of New Quality Productivity on Tax Revenue

作　　者：李永海 邱一哲 Li Yonghai;Qiu Yizhe

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学财政与税务学院,兰州730020

出　　处：《公共财政研究》2024年第6期35-48,共14页Public Finance Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“减税降费背景下地区税收流失规模测度与合作治理研究”(20BJY230);甘肃省基础研究计划-软科学专项“甘肃省基本公共服务均等化推进共同富裕的实现路径研究”(24JRZA086)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：新质生产力作为高质量发展的核心驱动力,对保障税收收入的持续增长起着关键作用,正逐步成为推动税收收入增长的核心引擎。本文通过选取2010—2022年我国31个省份的面板数据,从理论和实证两方面验证了新质生产力对税收收入的影响。研究发现:新质生产力对税收收入具有正向的促进作用;产业结构高级化、城镇就业增加、技术创新作为中介变量可以对两者关系进行合理解释;新质生产力对税收收入的促进作用具有明显的异质性,在东部地区,市场化、新质生产力发展水平高的地区,新质生产力对税收收入的推动作用更加明显。New quality productive forces,as the core driving force of high-quality development,play a key role in ensuring the sustained growth of tax revenue and are gradually becoming the core engine for driving tax revenue growth.This paper verifies the impact of new quality productive forces on tax revenue from both theoretical and empirical perspectives by selecting panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2022.The study finds that new quality productive forces have a positive promotional effect on tax revenue;industrial structure upgrading,urban employment growth,and technological innovation serve as mediating variables that can provide a comprehensive explanation of the relationship between the two;at the same time,the promotion of new quality productive forces on tax revenue has a significant heterogeneity,with the promotion of tax revenue being more obvious in the eastern region,market-oriented regions,and regions with high levels of new quality productive forces development.

关 键 词：新质生产力 税收收入 双向固定效应模型量 

分 类 号：F81[经济管理—财政学]