中国人口老龄化基础研究中存在的问题反思  

Reflection on Problems in Basic Research on Population Aging in China

作　　者：王广州[1] Wang Guangzhou

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100006

出　　处：《中国社会科学评价》2024年第4期82-90,157,共10页China Social Science Review

基　　金：中国社会科学院“长城学者计划”(2024CCXZ001)阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：人口老龄化是一个涉及平均预期寿命延长和生育率变化的复杂过程,对经济社会结构产生重大影响。在过去的七十多年里,中国人口的四次出生高峰和四次出生低谷形成了大起大落的结构性与趋势性特征。在当前超低生育水平、人口加速负增长条件下中国人口老龄化问题研究中存在基础理论、统计指标和应用研究方面的不足,总和生育率、平均预期寿命等统计指标基本状况和变动趋势的不确定性,都可能导致对中国人口老龄化过程、特征和趋势性误判的风险。完善中国人口老龄化基础研究须加强关键基础数据的收集、深入研究核心统计测量方法、推进理论创新,为积极应对老龄社会潜在风险提供科学依据。Population aging is a complex process involving increased life expectancy and changes in fertility rates,which significantly impact economic and social structures.Over the past 70 years,China's population has experienced several peaks and troughs in births,creating structural and trend fluctuations.Under the current ultra-low fertility and accelerated negative population growth,there are still deficiencies in the basic theories,statistical indicators,and applied research on population aging in China.Uncertainties in key statistical indicators and associated trends,such as the total fertility rate and average life expectancy,could result in misjudgments about the process,characteristics,and trends of population aging.Improving basic research on population aging in China requires enhancing the collection of critical data,conducting in-depth research on core statistical measurement methods,and promoting theoretical innovation,thereby providing a scientific basis for actively addressing the potential risks of an aging society.

关 键 词：老龄化 人口转变 生育水平 平均预期寿命 健康预期寿命 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]