价格波动对燃气行业安全的影响--基于28个省份的经验证据  

Impact of Price Fluctuations on the Security of the Gas Sector:Empirical Evidence from 28 Provinces

作　　者：秦艳 QIN Yan(China Resources Gas Group Limited,Shenzhen 518000,China)

机构地区：[1]华润燃气控股有限公司,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2025年第2期89-97,共9页East China Economic Management

摘　　要：能源安全问题一直备受国家高度重视,近年来上游燃气价格频繁波动,是否会对燃气行业安全水平产生影响?文章首先构建了燃气价格与燃气行业安全水平的理论模型,以2016—2021年中国28个省份数据为样本,实证检验燃气价格波动对燃气行业安全产生的影响。结果表明,上游燃气价格上涨会显著影响地区燃气行业安全水平波动幅度;燃气企业利润在燃气价格波动与燃气行业安全水平之间起到中介作用。Energy security has consistently remained a paramount concern for national interests.In recent years,the recurrent fluctuations in upstream gas prices have prompted inquiries into their potential impact on the security levels within the gas sector.This essay first develops a theoretical model that establishes a connection between gas price fluctuations and safety levels in the gas sector.Utilizing data from 28 provinces in China spanning the years 2016 to 2021,the research empirically investigates the impact of gas price fluctuations on the security of the gas sector.The findings reveal that an increase in upstream gas prices significantly affects fluctuations in the security levels of the gas sector at the regional level.Furthermore,the profitability of gas companies serves as a mediating factor in the relationship between gas price fluctuations and the security levels of the gas sector.

关 键 词：燃气价格 燃气行业安全 实证分析 

分 类 号：F764.1[经济管理—产业经济] F426.22[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程] F299.24[建筑科学—市政工程] TU996.9