广州地区多次献血者流失影响因素研究:基于零膨胀泊松回归模型  

Factors influencing repeat blood donor lapsing in Guangzhou:based on the zero-inflated poisson regression model

作　　者：柯蓉蓉[1] 谢桂芸 郑晓晓[1] 许颖莹 洪晓春[1] 黎世杰[1] 邓泳诗 沈金宇 陈锦艳[1] 欧阳剑[1] KE Rongrong;XIE Guiyun;ZHENG Xiaoxiao;XU Yingying;HONG Xiaochun;LI Shijie;DENG Yongshi;SHENJinyu;CHEN Jinyan;OUYANG Jian(Guangzhou Blood Center,Guangzhou 510095,China;Guangdong Medical University,Dongguan 523000,China)

机构地区：[1]广州血液中心,广东广州510095 [2]广东医科大学,广东东莞523000

出　　处：《中国输血杂志》2025年第1期73-78,84,共7页Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion

基　　金：广州市科技计划项目(SL2023A03J00604);2022年广东医科大学大学生创新实验项目(社会科学类重点项目SZDC001)。

摘　　要：目的运用零膨胀泊松回归模型,分析多次献血者流失的影响因素。方法本研究采用零膨胀泊松回归模型(zero-inflated poisson model,ZIP)对广州血液中心12498名在2020年献全血的献血者截止2023年12月31日的献血行为进行了跟踪,以献血者当年的献血次数为结局变量,若献血者当年献血次数为0,即为流失,测量其每次献血时相关的影响因素的变化并建模分析。结果零膨胀泊松回归模型零膨胀部分结果显示,男性献血者的流失风险是女性的2.24倍(OR 95%CI:1.864~2.696,P<0.001)。年龄分组中,35~44岁组的流失风险比25岁以下组的低40%(OR 95%CI:0.455~0.790,P<0.001),大于45岁组的流失风险比小于25岁组的低61%(OR 95%CI:0.268~0.578,P<0.001)。历史献血次数分组中,历史献血2次的献血者的流失风险比首次献血者低50%(OR 95%CI:0.405~0.609,P<0.001);历史3次及以上献血者的流失风险比首次献血者低81%(OR 95%CI:0.154~0.225,P<0.001)。教育程度分类中,初中或高中学历组的流失风险是大专及以上学历组的1.2倍(OR 95%CI:1.033~1.384,P<0.05)。在婚姻状况分类中,离异组的流失风险是已婚组的2.02倍(OR 95%CI:1.445~2.820,P<0.001)。在家庭收入状况中,收入1~5万组的流失风险是收入小于1万组的0.67倍(OR 95%CI:0.552~0.818,P<0.001),收入5~10万组的流失风险是收入小于1万组的0.72倍(OR 95%CI:0.591~0.884,P=0.002),收入大于10万组的流失风险是收入小于1万组的0.67倍(OR 95%CI:0.535~0.834,P<0.001)。泊松部分的结果与零膨胀部分的结果在年龄分组及教育程度分类方面相互印证。结论献血者的流失和献血者的性别、年龄、献血次数、教育情况、婚姻状况、家庭收入等因素均有关系。应做好易流失献血群体的关爱工作,减少他们的流失,保留更多的定期献血者。Objective To analyze the influencing factors of repeat blood donor lapsing using a zero-inflated poisson regression model(ZIP).Methods The blood donation behavior of 12498 whole blood donors from 2020 was tracked until December 31,2023.The factors influencing the frequency of blood donations in a given year was analyzed using ZIP,and donors with 0 blood donation in that year were considered to have lapsed.The changes in relevant influencing factors associated with each blood donation were measured and modeled for analysis.Results The zero-inflated part of ZIP showed that the risk of lapsing of male blood donors was 2.24 times that of female blood donors(OR 95%CI:1.864-2.696,P<0.001);the risk of lapsing of the 35-44 age group and over 45 age group was respectively 40%(OR 95%CI:0.455-0.790,P<0.001)and 61%(OR 95%CI:0.268-0.578,P<0.001)lower than that of the under 25 age group;the risk of lapsing for those who have donated blood twice and≥3 times was respectively 50%(OR 95%CI:0.405-0.609,P<0.001)and 81%(OR 95%CI:0.154-0.225,P<0.001)lower than that of first-time donors;the risk of lapsing of those with junior high or high school education was 1.2 times that of those with a college degree or higher(OR 95%CI:1.033-1.384,P<0.05);the risk of lapsing for the divorced group was 2.02 times that of the married group(OR 95%CI:1.445-2.820,P<0.001);the risk of lapsing for those with an income(Yuan)of 10000 to 50000,50000 to 100000 and more than 100000 was respectively 0.67(OR 95%CI:0.552-0.818,P<0.001),0.72(OR 95%CI:0.591-0.884,P=0.002)and 0.67(OR 95%CI:0.535-0.834,P<0.001)times that of those with an income(Yuan)of less than 10000.The results of the Poisson part are consistent with the results of the zero-inflated part in terms of age and education level.Conclusion Blood donor lapsing is overall related to factors such as gender,age,donation frequency,education,marital status and family income.It’s essential to care for those blood donors prone to lapse to retain more regular blood donors.

关 键 词：多次献血者 流失 影响因素 零膨胀泊松回归模型 广州 

分 类 号：R457.1[医药卫生—治疗学]