2024年钦州“5·19”极端暖区暴雨成因分析  

Analysis of the causes of the extreme warm-sector rainstorm in Qinzhou on May 19,2024

作　　者：包文雯 韦美闹 何小娟 刘国忠 赵飞 张雪波 BAO Wenwen;WEI Meinao;HE Xiaojuan;LIU Guozhong;ZHAO Fei;ZHANG Xuebo(Qinzhou Meteorological Bureau,Guangxi Qinzhou 535000,China;Guangxi Meteorological Observatory,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]钦州市气象局,广西钦州535000 [2]广西壮族自治区气象台,南宁530022

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2024年第4期28-33,共6页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2024GXNSFAA010352);广西气象科研计划项目(桂气科2024Z04);钦州市气象局科研项目(钦气科2024003)。

摘　　要：利用多源气象资料,对2024年5月19日钦州极端暖区暴雨进行分析。结果表明:(1)这是一次发生在低涡南侧、低层东南风和偏南风辐合区、SLLJ(低空急流)和BLJ(边界层急流)耦合作用下的暖区暴雨过程,极端性强、致灾风险高。(2)SLLJ入口区辐散与BLJ出口区辐合使对流强烈发展,是极端雨强出现的重要原因,由SLLJ和BLJ形成两条水汽通道将北部湾及南海的水汽和能量输送至强降雨区,支撑强降雨维持。(3)海陆地形阻挡作用使水汽在钦州湾形成稳定辐合带,为强降雨提供水汽及对流触发条件。(4)极端雨强发生时龙门港附近出现弱中气旋、ZDR反弧长时间维持、KDP值最大达5.1 deg•km^(-1)等雷达特征。(5)防城港GPS水汽站可降水量跃增到70 mm以上,对钦州沿海极端强降水临近预报有参考意义。Based on multi-source meteorological data,this article analyzes the extreme warm-sector rainstorm in Qinzhou on May 19,2024.The results indicate:(1)This was a warm-sector rainstorm event occurring on the south side of a low vortex,in the convergence zone of low-level southeasterly and southerly winds,and under the coupled effect of low-level jet(SLLJ)and boundary-layer jet(BLJ),which was characterized by high extremity and high risk of disaster.(2)The divergence in the entrance area of SLLJ and the convergence in the exit area of BLJ led to the strong development of convective,resulting in the occurrence of extreme rainfall.Two moisture channels formed by SLLJ and BLJ transported moisture and energy from the Beibu Gulf and the South China Sea to the heavy rainfall area,supporting the maintenance of strong rainfall.(3)The blocking effect of the sea-land terrain caused moisture to form a stable convergence zone in the Qinzhou Bay area,providing conditions for convergence and triggering of the heavy rainfall process.(4)Characteristics of a weak mesocyclone near Longmen Port,long-term maintenance of the ZDR arc,and the peak of minute rainfall with a maximum KDP value of 5.1 deg•km^(-1)are observed during the occurrence of extreme rainfall intensity.(5)The significant increase in precipitable water at the Qinzhou coastal GPS water vapor station to over 70 mm is of reference significance for the imminent prediction of extreme precipitation in Qinzhou.

关 键 词：极端降雨 暖区暴雨 双急流耦合 雷达偏振参量特征 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]