洪涝灾害“空地一体化”应急救援响应流程建模及时效分析  

Modeling and timeliness analysis on“air-ground integration”emergency rescue response process of flood disaster

作　　者：郭昕曜 孙延杰 吕伟[2] GUO Xinyao;SUN Yanjie;LYU Wei(School of Civil Aviation,Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics,Zhengzhou Henan 450046,China;School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州航空工业管理学院民航学院,河南郑州450046 [2]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第1期48-55,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72304253,52072286);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(22YJC630027);河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划项目(2024GGJS098)。

摘　　要：为提高洪涝灾害下应急救援效率,构建特大洪涝灾害“空地一体化”应急救援响应流程的逻辑概念模型,通过随机Petri网同构的马尔科夫链对模型的有效性和系统性能进行分析与检验,揭示救援响应流程中的关键环节,计算空地协同救援的处置时间。最后,以河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害的应急处置为例,对比验证空地协同应急救援流程相较于传统救援效率的提升效果。研究结果表明:本文提出的洪涝灾害“空地一体化”应急救援响应流程可将郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害的应急救援时间从11 d缩短为6.6 d;地面转移、直升机救援、航空转移是容易造成信息堆积的环节,若将直升机救援信息反馈环节的平均实施时间缩短为4.8 h,总体救援时间将再缩短1.8 d,可进一步提高应急救援效率。研究结果以期为提升洪涝灾害的空地联动应急救援能力提供参考。To enhance the efficiency of emergency rescue during flood disasters,a logical conceptual model for the“airground integration”emergency rescue response process of megaflood disaster was constructed.The validity and system performance of model were analyzed and verified through the Markov chain isomorphic to the stochastic Petri net,then the key steps in the rescue response process were revealed,and the processing time for air-ground coordinated rescue was calculated.Finally,taking the emergency disposal to the“7·20”heavy rainstorm disaster in Zhengzhou of Henan province as a case,the efficiency improvement effect of the air-ground coordinated emergency rescue process compared to traditional rescue methods was verified.The results show that the proposed“air-ground integration”emergency rescue response process of flood disasters can reduce the emergency rescue time for the“7·20”disaster in Zhengzhou from 11 days to approximately 6.6 days.The ground transfer,helicopter rescue,and aerial transfer are the steps most prone to cause the information accumulation.If the average implementation time for the information feedback step of helicopter rescue is reduced to 4.8 h,the overall rescue time can be further reduced by 1.8 days,which can further enhance the efficiency of emergency rescue.The research results are expected to provide reference for improving the emergency rescue capability of air-ground linkage in flood disasters.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害应急救援 空地一体化 救援时效性 随机PETRI网 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X913.4