我国建筑业安全管理效率评价与预测研究  

Research on evaluation and prediction of safety management efficiency of construction industry in China

作　　者：倪国栋 贺先[1] 缪心玥 方亚琦 王文顺 谷甜甜 牛苗苗[1,2] NI Guodong;HE Xian;MIAO Xinyue;FANG Yaqi;WANG Wenshun;GU Tiantian;NIU Miaomiao(School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China;Research Center for Digitalized Construction and Knowledge Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学力学与土木工程学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学数字化建造与知识工程研究中心,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第1期56-63,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72071201);中国矿业大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2024JCXKSK11)。

摘　　要：为测度与预测我国建筑业安全管理效率,通过建立超效率松弛测度(SBM)模型测度建筑业安全管理效率,利用Malmquist指数揭示效率的动态演变过程,运用Dagum基尼系数及其分解和空间自相关分析对效率空间格局、差异来源和贡献以及集聚模式进行探索,采用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型预测未来建筑业安全管理效率。研究结果表明:2012—2021年期间建筑业安全管理效率波动下降,2022年降至最低点,2023—2026年期间有小幅回升;纯技术效率和规模效率分别是影响效率水平和造成效率区域间差异的重要因素,区域间差异是效率空间差异的主要来源。研究结果可为提升我国建筑业安全管理效率和缩小其空间差异提供参考。To measure and predict the safety management efficiency of construction industry in China,a super-efficient slackbased measure(SBM)model was established to measure the safety management efficiency of construction industry,and the Malmquist index was used to reveal the dynamic evolution process of efficiency.The spatial patterns,difference sources and contributions,and clustering modes of efficiency were explored by using the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition and spatial autocorrelation analysis.A long short-term memory(LSTM)model was used to predict the future safety management efficiency of construction industry.The results show that the safety management efficiency of construction industry presents a fluctuating decline from 2012 to 2021,reaches the lowest point in 2022,and rebounds slightly from 2023 to 2026.The pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are the important factors affecting the efficiency levels and causing inter-regional difference in efficiency respectively,and the inter-regional difference is the main source of spatial difference in efficiency.The research results can provide reference for the construction industry in China to improve the safety management efficiency and narrow its spatial difference.

关 键 词：建筑业 安全管理效率 松弛测度模型 动态演变 空间分布差异 长短期记忆网络 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]