基于球形模糊-层次分析法的盾构土全生命周期风险评估  

Risk assessment of shield soil throughout its full life cycle based on spherical fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process

作　　者：杨志冉 柴金飞 方雨菲 周喻[1] YANG Zhiran;CHAI Jinfei;FANG Yufei;ZHOU Yu(Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mine,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Railway Engineering Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室,北京100083 [2]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司铁道建筑研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第1期109-117,共9页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3707805)。

摘　　要：为了对盾构土全生命周期风险进行合理评估,以应对其复杂多元的系统工程特性,克服传统评价模型的不足。采用专家评估法构建盾构施工技术、社会、安全、环境、经济等方面的风险层次结构,并利用球形模糊集对其进行成对比较和权重分配,通过去模糊化和归一化处理,建立风险评估模型。研究结果表明:在济南某轨道交通工程中,施工安全、技术、环境、经济和社会风险的权重分别为0.2162,0.2155,0.2043,0.1990,0.1650,并识别出资源回收成本高、施工扰民和盾构机适应性不足等高风险因素。研究结果可为盾构施工项目风险管理提供参考。To reasonably assess the risk of shield soil throughout the full life cycle,addressing its complex and multi-faceted system engineering characteristics and overcoming the limitations of traditional evaluation models,the expert evaluation method was adopted to construct a hierarchical risk structure encompassing the shield construction technology,society,safety,environment,and economy.The pairwise comparisons and weight assignments were conducted using the spherical fuzzy sets,and a risk evaluation model was established through the defuzzification and normalization processing.The results show that in a certain rail transit project in Jinan,the weights of construction safety,technology,environment,economy,and social risks are 0.2162,0.2155,0.2043,0.1990,0.1650,respectively.The high-risk factors such as high resource recovery costs,construction disturbances to residents,and insufficient adaptability of shield machine are identified.The research results can provide a reference for the risk management of shield construction projects.

关 键 词：盾构土 全生命周期 风险评估 球形模糊集 层次分析法 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]