考虑人员特性和场景布局的西藏高原人群疏散仿真研究  

Simulation study of crowd evacuation on Tibetan plateau considering personnel characteristics and scene layout

作　　者：程刚[1] 潘敬 郑雄飞 CHENG Gang;PAN Jing;ZHENG Xiongfei(School of Engineering,Tibet University,Lhasa Xizang 850000,China;Yecheng County Water Resources Bureau,Kashgar Xinjiang 844900,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏大学工学院,西藏拉萨850000 [2]叶城县水利局,新疆喀什844900

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第1期186-194,共9页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：西藏自治区科技计划揭榜挂帅项目(XZ202303ZY0005G);拉萨市科技计划项目(LSKJ202401);国家自然科学基金项目(51968063)。

摘　　要：为提高突发事件下西藏高原人流聚集场所人员应急疏散能力,基于模糊规则的社会力模型,结合AnyLogic对高原人群疏散行为特性进行研究。首先研究影响西藏高原人员应急疏散的因素,根据模糊规则确定因素对人员疏散速度的影响;以八廓步行街为例建立突发事件下西藏高原人员疏散仿真模型,探究人员性别、年龄、环境熟悉程度、高原适应能力、出口宽度和出口布局6因素对疏散过程的影响;采用正交实验设计分析6因素综合作用对西藏高原人员应急疏散过程产生的影响,并提出最优组合方案。研究结果表明:6因素对西藏高原人群应急疏散过程均有不同程度影响,其中疏散人员的年龄影响最大,性别影响最小,并结合仿真分析提出相应引导策略。研究结果可为西藏高原地区居民在紧急疏散情况下的行动提供科学指导和决策支持。In order to improve the emergency evacuation ability of personnel gathering places in Tibet Plateau under emergencies,the social force model based on fuzzy rules and AnyLogic were used to study the crowd evacuation behavior characteristics on the plateau.The factors affecting the emergency evacuation of personnel on the Tibetan plateau were studied,and the influence of factors on evacuation speed was determined according to fuzzy rules.The simulation model of personnel evacuation under emergency on Tibetan plateau was established by taking Bakhor pedestrian street as an example,and the influence of six factors,such as gender,age,environmental familiarity,plateau adaptability,exit width and exit layout,on the evacuation process was explored.The orthogonal experimental design was used to analyze the influence of 6 factors on the emergency evacuation process on Tibet plateau,and the optimal combination scheme was proposed.The results show that 6 factors have different degrees of influence on the crowd emergency evacuation process of the Tibetan plateau.Among then,the age of evacuees has the most influence,and the gender has the least influence.Combined with the simulation analysis,the corresponding guidance strategy is proposed.The research results can provide scientific guidance and decision support for the residents on the Tibetan plateau area in the case of emergency evacuation.

关 键 词：西藏高原 社会力模型 生理特性 场景布局 人群疏散 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]