基于Copula函数的代表年风速计算方法研究  

RESEARCH ON CALCULATION METHOD OF REPRESENTATIVE YEAR WIND SPEED BASED ON COPULA FUNCTION

作　　者：王远坤 冯钰栋 马惠群[2] Wang Yuankun;Feng Yudong;Ma Huiqun(School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Shandong Electric Power Engineering Consulting Institute Co.,Ltd.,Ji’nan 250013,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京102206 [2]山东电力工程咨询院有限公司,济南250013

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2025年第1期151-157,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家电投鲁院科技项目(37-K2022-077)。

摘　　要：以长系列再分析数据作为基础数据,提出一种基于Copula函数的代表年风速计算方法。采用威布尔分布计算测风年测风塔和气象站风速的概率边缘分布,利用Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数对测风塔和气象站风速边缘分布进行联结,以条件分布计算测风年和代表年风速之间的差值,以推求代表年风速,并与规范推荐方法进行对比分析。结果表明,无论气象站和测风塔年风速相关性优劣,Copula方法代表年风速计算结果精度均优于规范方法,为风电场资源评价中代表年风速计算提供了一种新的思路。This paper presents a method for estimating representative year wind speeds based on copula functions using a long series of reanalysis data.The probability marginal distribution of wind speeds for anemometer towers and meteorological stations are calculated using the Weibull distribution.The Gumbel-Hougaard Copula function is used to model the dependence between the wind speed distributions from the towers and stations.The difference between the conditional distribution of the wind speed from the towers and the representative year wind speed is calculated to obtain the representative year wind speed.The findings show that regardless of the quality of the correlation between the wind speeds from the meteorological station and the wind measurement tower,the Copula method achieves higher accuracy in calculating the annual wind speeds compared to the standard method.This study provides a new approach for estimating representative the annual wind speed in wind power resource assessment.

关 键 词：风速 威布尔分布 风电 COPULA 条件分布 代表年 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]