Multi-Scenario Probabilistic Load Flow Calculation Considering Wind Speed Correlation  

作　　者：Xueqian Wang Hongsheng Su 

机构地区：[1]School of Automation and Electrical Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou,730070,China

出　　处：《Energy Engineering》2025年第2期667-680,共14页能源工程(英文)

基　　金：supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61867003).

摘　　要：As the proportion of newenergy increases,the traditional cumulant method(CM)produces significant errorswhen performing probabilistic load flow(PLF)calculations with large-scale wind power integrated.Considering the wind speed correlation,a multi-scenario PLF calculation method that combines random sampling and segmented discrete wind farm power was proposed.Firstly,based on constructing discrete scenes of wind farms,the Nataf transform is used to handle the correlation between wind speeds.Then,the random sampling method determines the output probability of discrete wind power scenarios when wind speed exhibits correlation.Finally,the PLF calculation results of each scenario areweighted and superimposed following the total probability formula to obtain the final power flow calculation result.Verified in the IEEE standard node system,the absolute percent error(APE)for the mean and standard deviation(SD)of the node voltages and branch active power are all within 1%,and the average root mean square(AMSR)values of the probability curves are all less than 1%.

关 键 词：Wind speed correlation probabilistic load flow multi-scenario PIECEWISE cumulant method 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]