Two-Stage Scheduling Model for Flexible Resources in Active Distribution Networks Based on Probabilistic Risk Perception  

作　　者：Yukai Li Ruixue Zhang Yongfeng Ni Hongkai Qiu Yuning Zhang Chunming Liu 

机构地区：[1]Beijing Kedong Power Control System Co.,Ltd.,State Grid Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing,100192,China [2]School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing,102206,China

出　　处：《Energy Engineering》2025年第2期681-707,共27页能源工程(英文)

基　　金：supported by Key Technology Research and Application of Online Control Simulation and Intelligent Decision Making for Active Distribution Network(5108-202218280A-2-377-XG).

摘　　要：Aiming at the problems of increasing uncertainty of low-carbon generation energy in active distribution network(ADN)and the difficulty of security assessment of distribution network,this paper proposes a two-phase scheduling model for flexible resources in ADN based on probabilistic risk perception.First,a full-cycle probabilistic trend sequence is constructed based on the source-load historical data,and in the day-ahead scheduling phase,the response interval of the flexibility resources on the load and storage side is optimized based on the probabilistic trend,with the probability of the security boundary as the security constraint,and with the economy as the objective.Then in the intraday phase,the core security and economic operation boundary of theADNis screened in real time.Fromthere,it quantitatively senses the degree of threat to the core security and economic operation boundary under the current source-load prediction information,and identifies the strictly secure and low/high-risk time periods.Flexibility resources within the response interval are dynamically adjusted in real-time by focusing on high-risk periods to cope with future core risks of the distribution grid.Finally,the improved IEEE 33-node distribution system is simulated to obtain the flexibility resource scheduling scheme on the load and storage side.Thescheduling results are evaluated from the perspectives of risk probability and flexible resource utilization efficiency,and the analysis shows that the scheduling model in this paper can promote the consumption of low-carbon energy from wind and photovoltaic sourceswhile reducing the operational risk of the distribution network.

关 键 词：Core operation boundary probabilistic power flow risk perception optimize scheduling flexible resource 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]