特朗普上台对全球经济、地缘政治和油气市场的影响  

The impact of Trump’s presidency on the global economy,geopolitics,and oil&gas markets

作　　者：张庆辰 张震 苏红卫 田果 曹淯翔 ZHANG Qingchen;ZHANG Zhen;SU Hongwei;TIAN Guo;CAO Yuxiang(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute;CNPC Policy Department;PetroChina Zhejiang Marketing Company)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院 [2]中国石油天然气集团有限公司政策研究室 [3]中国石油浙江销售分公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第12期7-13,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：特朗普当选第47任美国总统,主张扩张性的财政政策、保护性的经贸政策、“美国优先”的外交政策以及支持传统能源、抑制清洁能源发展的能源政策。特朗普上台后,加征关税将显著抑制国际贸易,拖累全球经济增长;全球产业链和供应链面临重塑压力;美国可能面临“再通胀”,间接改变美联储的降息路径;重塑地缘政治格局,加剧油气市场波动;中国经济将受冲击,但美国加征关税的负面影响或小于上一轮。建议中国紧抓窗口期完善国内机制和政策体系,加大油气增储上产力度,充分利用多边平台开展能源外交,构建能源安全共同体,保障能源安全。中国石油石化企业要深入研判地缘政治风险,强化海外业务精益经营和合作深度,做好油价中枢下移、波动加剧的应对预案。Trump was elected the 47~(th)president of the United States,advocating expansionary fiscal policy,protective economic and trade policy,“America First”foreign policy,supporting traditional energy and inhibiting the development of clean energy.After Trump comes to power,the imposition of tariffs will significantly inhibit international trade,dragging down global economic growth and imposing the reshaping pressure on global industrial chain and supply chain.The United States may face“reflation”,indirectly changing the Federal Reserve’s path of interest rate cuts.It will reshape the geopolitical landscape and exacerbate the volatility of the oil and gas market.China’s economy will be affected by the impact of the US tariffs,but the negative impact may be less than the previous round.It is recommended that China improve the domestic mechanism and policy system by seizing the“window period”,promote efforts to increase oil and gas reserves and production,make full use of multilateral platforms to carry out energy diplomacy,build an energy security community,and safeguard energy security.China’s petroleum and petrochemical enterprises should study geopolitical risks in depth,strengthen the lean operation and cooperation depth of overseas business,and make a good plan to cope with the downward shift of the oil price pivot and the increased volatility.

关 键 词：美国大选 特朗普执政 全球经济 地缘政治 油气市场 能源政策 能源安全 

分 类 号：D73[政治法律—政治学] D77[政治法律—中外政治制度] D815.9[经济管理—产业经济] F410F731