过去东亚季风年代际气候变率:特征与机制  

Past decadal climate variability of East Asian summer monsoon:Characteristics and mechanisms

作　　者：王可欣 赵景耀 王菁菁 李瀚瑛 聂军胜[3] 刘建宝 石正国[5] 黎有为 芦佳玉 程海[1] Kexin Wang;Jingyao Zhao;Jingjing Wang;Hanying Li;Junsheng Nie;Jianbao Liu;Zhengguo Shi;Youwei Li;Jiayu Lu;Hai Cheng(Institute of Global Environmental Change,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710054,China;School of Urban and Planning,Yancheng Teachers University,Yancheng 224051,China;Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710061,China;Guizhou Institute of Mountain Resources,Guiyang 550001,China;Think Tank of Coastal Development,Yancheng Teachers University,Yancheng 224002,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学全球环境变化研究院,西安710054 [2]盐城师范学院城市与规划学院,盐城224051 [3]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000 [4]中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100101 [5]中国科学院地球环境研究所,西安710061 [6]贵州省山地资源研究所,贵阳550001 [7]盐城师范学院江苏沿海发展研究院,盐城224002

出　　处：《科学通报》2025年第2期240-261,共22页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42150710534,42372218)资助。

摘　　要：亚洲季风年代际变率和动力学机制的研究关乎国家中长期发展决策的需求和亚洲季风区的环境、经济和社会发展,也是国际气候研究的前沿科学问题.综合现代观测、代用资料重建和气候模式模拟资料,本文回顾了过去不同时期东亚夏季风年代际变率的演变特征,并综述了内部变率和外强迫对东亚夏季风年代际变率的影响机制.过去千年东亚夏季风变化呈现与过去百年器测记录相一致的年代际变化特征,以20~30年和60~80年准周期为主导.其中,历史文献、树轮和湖泊沉积记录呈现的周期具有明显的空间差异,而整个东亚季风区石笋记录的周期呈现显著的空间一致性,分别反映了东亚季风降水的空间差异性和东亚季风环流的空间一致性.这一周期特征与北大西洋年代际变率(Atlantic multidecadal variability,AMV)和太平洋年代际变率(Pacific decadal variability,PDV)的主导周期一致,表明AMV和PDV对东亚夏季风年代际变率的影响.现代气象分析资料表明,AMV和PDV会通过调制大气遥相关、海气耦合过程以及ENSO变率等方式影响东亚夏季风环流及降水.火山活动、温室气体等外强迫也直接或者通过调制气候系统内部变率间接影响东亚夏季风的年代际变率.然而,目前对“内部变率和外强迫驱动何者占主导?年代际尺度上未来东亚夏季风及降水格局如何变化?”等关键科学问题的认识仍不清楚,不同气候背景下的东亚季风年代际变率重建及其与数值模拟的结合有望为深入认知这些问题提供重要参考.The decadal variability of the Asian monsoon is a key variation in long-term climate mean and an important background for accurately estimating its annual variability.Therefore,the decadal variability of the Asian monsoon is crucial for predicting the medium-to long-term climate changes of the Asian monsoon region.The study of its evolutionary patterns and dynamic mechanisms is closely related to the needs of national medium-to long-term development decisions and the environmental,economic,and social development of the Asian monsoon region.It is also at the forefront of international climate research.By combining modern observations,climate reconstruction from proxy data(such as historical documents,tree rings,lake sediments,and stalagmites),and climate model simulation data,this paper reviews the characteristics of the decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon in different periods.This paper also summarizes the impact mechanisms of internal climate variability,such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability(AMV)and Pacific Decadal Variability(PDV),and external forcing factors,such as volcanic activity,solar radiation,and anthropogenic activities,on the decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon.First,we collected published high-resolution(>7 years)East Asian summer monsoon records based on historical documents,tree rings,and speleothem dat covering the past 2000 years,along with the latest climate simulation results for the past millennium.We then detrended the data and applied an 11-year low-pass filter,before using a multi-taper method(MTM)spectral analysis to examine their periodic characteristics.Both reconstruction and simulation results indicated that the East Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium has exhibited decadal characteristics with dominant periods of 20-30 years and 60-80 years,which is consistent with instrumental records of the past century.The periodic characteristics of historical documents,tree rings,and lake sediment records showed obvious spatial differences,refle

关 键 词：东亚季风 年代际变率 古气候 太平洋年代际变率(PDV) 北大西洋年代际变率(AMV) 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P425.42