南水北调西线工程水源区气象条件分析  

Analysis of Meteorological Conditions at the Water Source Area of the South-to-North Water Diversion West Route Project

作　　者：王聪[1] 陈旻[1] 张陵蕾[1] 李嘉[1] 安瑞冬[1] 李永[1] WANG Cong;CHEN Min;ZHANG Linglei;LI Jia;AN Ruidong;LI Yong(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学山区河流保护与治理全国重点实验室,四川成都610065

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第2期42-50,73,共10页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202403,2022YFC3202402);四川省自然科学基金资助项目(2023NSFSC0285)。

摘　　要：南水北调西线工程是缓解黄河中上游地区水资源短缺的重要举措,但全球气候变化影响水源区的水资源供给和分配,目前对水源区气象特征缺乏整体的认知,其内部气象变化的时空差异和敏感性也需进一步阐明。因此,基于1961—2020年逐日气象数据对水源区降水和气温进行趋势、突变和相关性分析。结果表明:从变化趋势来看,水源区气象要素对全球气候变化响应敏感,降水量以16.14 mm/10 a的速度显著增加,接近我国平均速度的3倍;气温上升速度为0.26℃/10 a,与全国平均速度持平。从时空分布来看,水源区多年平均降水量由东南向西北递减,年内分布变差系数为0.91,降水主要集中在6—9月,占全年的72%;多年平均气温为3.62℃,呈现由北向南递增的趋势,年内气温介于-16.7与16.4℃之间。同时,水源区内部气候敏感性存在差异,降水变化敏感区为水源区靠近两河口和双江口区域,清水河、石渠和色达为气温变化敏感站;敏感站之间存在较强的相关性,其气象条件可能同时剧变,配水策略应避免风险叠加。The South-to-North Water Diversion Project's Western Route is a crucial measure to alleviate water shortages in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River.However,global climate change has affected the water supply and distribution in the source areas currently,there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the meteorological characteristics of these areas,and further clarification is needed on the spatial and temporal differences and sensitivities of internal meteorological changes.Therefore,this study analyzed the trends,abrupt changes,and correlations of precipitation and temperature in the source areas is based on daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2020.The results show that the meteorological conditions in the source areas respond sensitively to global climate change.Precipitation has significantly increased at a rate of 16.14 mm/decade,nearly three times the national average.The temperature has risen at a rate of 0.26℃/decade,consistent with the national average rate.In terms of spatial and temporal distribution,the average annual precipitation in the source areas decreased from southeast to northwest.The annual variability coefficient of precipitation is 0.91,with 72%of the precipitation concentrated between June and September.The average annual temperature is 3.62℃,increasing from north to south,with temperatures ranging from-16.7℃to 16.4℃throughout the year.Moreover,there are differences in climate sensitivity within the source areas.The sensitive areas for precipitation changes are near Lianghekou and Shuangjiangkou,while Qingshui River,Shiqu,and Seda are sensitive sites for temperature changes.There is a strong correlation between these sensitive sites,indicating that their meteorological conditions might change abruptly simultaneously,necessitating the avoidance of risk accumulation in water distribution strategies.

关 键 词：变化趋势 时空分布特征 变化敏感区 相关性分析 南水北调西线工程 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]