山洪灾害风险空间分异性评估及其驱动力研究  

Study on Spatial Differentiation Assessment and Driving Force of Flash Flood Disaster Risk

作　　者：宿辉[1,2] 武春晓 周帅 张晓 白志辉[4] 韩小庆[4] 张婷[5] SU Hui;WU Chunxiao;ZHOU Shuai;ZHANG Xiao;BAI Zhihui;HAN Xiaoqing;ZHANG Ting(School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;Key Laboratory of Smart Water Conservancy of Hebei Province,Handan 056038,China;China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;Jizhong Energy Fengfeng Group Company Limited,Handan 056201,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]河北省智慧水利重点实验室,河北邯郸056038 [3]中国地质大学,北京100083 [4]冀中能源峰峰集团有限公司,河北邯郸056201 [5]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第2期60-66,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：2023年度河北省高等学校科学研究项目(QN2023064);河北省自然科学基金青年项目(E2023402016);河北省水利科技计划项目(2018-41)。

摘　　要：开展山洪灾害风险评估及其驱动力分析,对于洪灾风险防范与应对具有现实意义。以洪灾频发的山西省为例,利用层次分析方法有效识别了洪灾风险等级及其空间分异性特征,并利用全局和局部莫兰指数探究了其空间聚集(离散)位置及其分布规律;利用地理探测器技术探明了洪灾风险的驱动机理。结果表明:年最大24 h降水量、多年平均降水量和NDVI是影响洪灾分异性的重要因子,其解释力q值分别高达0.57、0.52和0.24;多风险双因子交互作用对洪灾风险影响显著,且呈增强或非线性增强趋势,尤其是降水和坡度因子交互作用,其q值高达0.71。It is of practical significance for flood risk prevention and response to carry out mountain flood risk assessment and its driving force analysis.Therefore,this paper took Shanxi Province with frequent floods as an example,used the analytic hierarchy process to effectively identify the flood risk level and its spatial differentiation characteristics,and used the global and local Moran's indexes to explore its spatial aggregation(discrete)location and distribution law.Finally,the driving mechanism behind the flood risk was explored by using the geographic detector technology.The results show that the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall,multi-year average rainfall and NDVI factors are important factors causing flood differentiation,and their explanatory power q values are as high as 0.57,0.52 and 0.24,respectively.The multi-risk two-factor interaction has a significant impact on flood risk,and it is enhanced or non-linearly enhanced,especially the interaction between rainfall and slope factors,with a q value of 0.71.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 致灾因子 风险评估 空间自相关性 山西省 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]