基于GIS技术的武汉市2000-2020年耕地变化态势及驱动因素分析  

Analysis on the Change Trend and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land in Wuhan City From 2000 to 2020 Based on GIS Technology

作　　者：陈逸方 刘晨曦 黄立文 顾朝军 孙奇石 Chen Yifang;Liu Chenxi;Huang Liwen;Gu Chaojun;Sun Qishi(Yangtze River Basin Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring Center,Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China;Yangtze River Academy of Science,Yangtze River Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China;Engineering and Technology Research Center for Prevention and Control of Mountain Floods and Geological Disasters,Ministry of Water Resources,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会长江流域水土保持监测中心站,湖北武汉430010 [2]长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北武汉430010 [3]水利部山洪地质灾害防治工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《绿色科技》2024年第21期156-163,共8页Journal of Green Science and Technology

摘　　要：耕地资源是土地利用方式中最重要的一种,是国家生态安全的重要保障。采用土地利用数据、遥感影像数据和社会经济统计数据,利用随机森林分类器、单一土地动态度、主成分分析的方法,结合GIS技术,对武汉市2000-2020年耕地变化态势及驱动因素展开了分析。结果表明:研究区近20年来耕地面积呈现随时间不断减少的变化趋势,不同区域土地利用变化表现出显著的空间差异,且在不同时间段变化幅度存在差异。耕地主要转移方向为建设用地,增加主要来源为水域和建设用地,但流出量大于流入量,整体上表现为向其他地类转出的态势。耕地数量发生的上述变化受经济状况、人口发展、政策因素、农业生产等多种驱动因素影响。研究结果能够为武汉市耕地保护与经济社会的协调和可持续发展提供依据。The rapid development of urbanization and growing population in Wuhan have led to an increase in the demand for food.The study of the changing characteristics of arable land resources and their driving factors in Wuhan City can provide scientific references for the formulation of arable land protection and food security policies in Wuhan City.In this study,land use data,remote sensing image data and socio-economic statistics were selected,and the changing trend of arable land and its driving factors in Wuhan City from 2000 to 2020 were thoroughly explored and analyzed by using methods such as Random Forest Classifier and Principal Component Analysis,combined with GIS technology.The results of the study show that the arable land area in the study area has shown a decreasing trend in the past 20 years,and the changes of arable land in different regions also show significant spatial differences.Cultivated land outflow is mainly transferred to construction land,and the main sources of cultivated land inflow are waters and construction land.Overall,the outflow of arable land is larger than the inflow of arable land.Changes in the amount of arable land are mainly influenced by economic conditions,population development,policy factors,agricultural production and other driving factors.The results of the study can provide a scientific basis for the coordinated and sustainable development of arable land protection and economy and society in Wuhan City.

关 键 词：耕地变化 主成分分析 GIS 随机森林分类 武汉市 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] F323.211[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]