黄河流域极端降水的时空演变特征  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：赵晓雪 张慧慧 杨丽祯 赵静 谢恒星 曹琳 姚付启[1] ZHAO Xiaoxue;ZHANG Huihui;YANG lizhen;ZHAO Jing;XIE Hengxing;CAO Lin;YAO Fuqi(School of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering,Ludong University,Yantai 264039,China;Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute of Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430012,China;School of Environmental and Life Sciences,Weinan Normal University,Weinan 714099,China;Zhaotong Water Resources and Hydropower Survey and Design Institute,Zhaotong 657000,China)

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学水利土木学院,山东烟台264039 [2]长江水利委员会长江科学院,武汉430012 [3]渭南师范学院环境与生命科学学院,陕西渭南714099 [4]昭通市水利水电勘测设计研究所,云南昭通657000

出　　处：《鲁东大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期39-50,共12页Journal of Ludong University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金(ZR2020ME254,ZR2020QDO61);陕西省教育厅重点实验室科学研究计划项目(20JSO47)。

摘　　要：研究黄河流域极端降水时空演变规律,为农业生产及防洪减灾提供参考依据。基于黄河流域1979—2020年多源加权集合降水数据集,运用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall检验法、Pearson相关系数法和Theil-Sen斜率估计法对最大日降水量(RX1day)、最大5日降水量(RX5day)、强降水量(R95p)、极端强降水量(R99p)、总降水量(PRCPTOT)、降水强度(SDII)、中雨日数(R10)、大雨日数(R20)和暴雨日数(R25)等9个极端降水指数的时空演变特征进行分析,得到如下研究结果。在时间尺度上,整个黄河流域的RX1day、R99p、SDII、R20呈下降趋势,RX5day、R95p、PRCPTOT、R10、R25呈上升趋势;从黄河上游地区来看,除RX1day呈下降趋势外,其余8个极端降水指数均呈上升趋势;从黄河中游地区来看,9个极端降水指数均呈下降趋势;从黄河下游地区来看,RX1day和RX5day呈上升趋势,其余极端降水指数呈下降趋势。在空间分布上,9个极端降水指数整体呈现由东南向西北逐渐下降的空间分布格局。从极端降水指数的影响因素来看,黄河流域极端降水指数相互之间呈现极显著的正相关关系,极端降水指数与大气环流因子存在一定的相关性。To provide reference basis for agricultural production and flood control and disaster reduction,the study aims to explore the temporal and spatial evolution patterns of extreme precipitation in the Yellow River basin.Based on the multi-source weighted ensemble precipitation data set of the Yellow River basin from 1979 to 2020,the linear regression method,Mann-Kendall test method,Pearson correlation coefficient method and Theil-Sen slope estimation method are employed to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of nine extreme precipitation indices,which includes the maximum daily precipitation(RX1day),the maximum 5-day precipitation(RX5day),the heavy precipitation(R95p),the extremely heavy precipitation(R99p),the total precipitation(PRCPTOT),the precipitation intensity(SDII),the number of days with moderate rain(R10),the number of days with heavy rain(R20)and the number of days with torrential rain(R25).The results are shown as follows.On the time scale,RX1day,R99p,SDII and R20 in the Yellow River basin show a downward trend,while RX5day,R95p,PRCPTOT,R10 and R25 show an upward trend.In the upper reaches of the Yellow River,RX1day shows a downward trend,while the other eight extreme precipitation indices all show an upward trend.In the middle reaches of the Yellow River,the nine extreme precipitation indices show a downward trend.In the lower reaches of the Yellow River,except for RX1day and RX5day which show an upward trend,the other extreme precipitation indices all show a downward trend.In terms of spatial distribution,the nine extreme precipitation indices generally present a spatial distribution pattern of gradually decreasing from the southeast to the northwest.From the perspective of the influencing factors of extreme precipitation indices,all the extreme precipitation indices in the Yellow River basin show extremely significant positive correlations,and there are certain correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and the atmospheric circulation factors.

关 键 词：极端降水 MSWEP 时空演变 黄河流域 

分 类 号：P332.1[天文地球—水文科学]