基于正态随机过程的驼峰设计中计算气温建模与分析  

Calculated Temperature Modeling Based on Normal Stochastic Process in Hump Design

作　　者：夏胜利[1] 仇帅 张红亮[1,2] XIA Shengli;QIU Shuai;ZHANG Hongliang(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Railway Traffic Safety,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学轨道交通安全协同创新中心,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道学报》2025年第1期21-30,共10页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费(2022JBXT008)。

摘　　要：基于可获取的全球公开气象数据,发现现行设计规范中用以描述气温分布的正态分布模型与我国铁路编组站所在地全年月均气温和全年日均气温的分布情况均不相符,在此基础上,深入分析现行驼峰设计规范中给出的气温分布模型的来源及不足。为更准确地拟合编组站所在地实际气温的分布,提出基于正态随机过程的全年日均气温建模方法,并在此基础上给出用于拟合实际日均气温的理论密度函数。以全路18个编组站所在地的全年日均气温数据为实例,验证该理论密度函数对实际数据的拟合效果,并基于实例数据给出日均气温数据精度下计算气温的置信水平,发现相同置信水平下提出的理论密度函数计算得到的气温与基于规范方法计算得到的气温仅相差0~3℃。由此可知,现行规范中给出的气温分布模型在工程实践中应用是可行的,但在推导过程中理论依据不充分,本研究成果很好地解决这一问题,夯实了驼峰设计及优化理论基础。According to the available global public meteorological data,it was found that the temperature model in the current design standard is not consistent with the actual data of the main marshalling stations in China.Based on this,an analysis was conducted on the sources and defects of the model given in the code.To accurately fit the distribution of the actual daily average temperature at the location of the marshalling stations,a temperature model based on the normal random process was proposed,with a theoretical density function of the actual data given.Subsequently,based on the annual average daily temperature data of 18 marshalling stations,the good fitting effects of the theoretical density func⁃tion on the actual data were verified.Afterward,a confidence level determination method was given under the accuracy of the daily average temperature data based on the actual data.The results show that the temperature calculated based on the method proposed in this paper is 0~3℃different from that based on the method described in the specification at the same confidence level.Despite the feasibility of the temperature distribution model given in the current code in engineer⁃ing practice,the theoretical basis is not sufficient in the derivation process.The research results in this paper solve this problem well and consolidate the theoretical foundation for hump design and optimization.

关 键 词：驼峰设计 计算气温 铁路编组站 气象资料 

分 类 号：U291.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]