使用再分析资料检测西北太平洋热带气旋的一种新型追踪器  

A novel tracker for detecting tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific using reanalysis data

作　　者：谷树韬 连涛 GU Shutao;LIAN Tao(Second Institute of Oceanography,MNR,Hangzhou 310012,China;State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Hangzhou 310012,China)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部第二海洋研究所,浙江杭州310012 [2]卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《海洋学研究》2024年第4期34-42,共9页Journal of Marine Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42022043)。

摘　　要：利用美国联合台风预警中心的热带气旋最佳路径数据集、欧洲中期天气预报中心的风速数据和海平面气压场数据,本研究基于风应力特征设计了一种简便追踪器用于检测1985-2014年西北太平洋热带气旋,并评估了该追踪器的性能指标。研究结果表明,追踪器能较好重现西北太平洋热带气旋的时空结构特征,热带气旋峰值期集中于8-10月,高频位置随季节南北移动的规律也与观测结果一致。此外,该追踪器使用海平面气压最小值作为划分热带气旋强度标准,识别出的各个强度热带气旋数量也与观测结果基本吻合。追踪器的检出概率和误报概率均表现良好,与前人设计的追踪器效果相当。追踪器检测到的热带气旋中,约有90%的热带气旋中心位置与观测结果的经纬度偏差小于等于1°,生命期偏差小于等于2 d,能较好地反映热带气旋完整的移动演变规律。A simple tropical cyclone tracker based on wind stress characteristics was designed in this study,using the best track dataset from the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center,wind speed data and sea level pressure field data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.The tracker was used to detect tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific from 1985 to 2014,and its performance metrics were evaluated.The results showed that the tracker was able to accurately reproduce the spatiotemporal structure of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific.The peak period of activity was concentrated from August to October,and the latitudinal positions varied with the seasons,consistent with the observations.Additionally,the tracker used the minimum sea level pressure as a criterion for determining cyclone intensity,and the number of cyclones identified at different intensities closely matched the observations.The tracker performed well in terms of probability of detection and false alarm rate for tropical cyclones,comparable to previously used trackers.Regarding the tropical cyclones detected by the tracker,the research findings showed that approximately 90%of the center positions were within a deviation of 1 degree from the observed positions,and the lifetime deviation was within 2 days,indicating a good representation of the complete movement and evolution of tropical cyclones.

关 键 词：热带气旋 追踪器 风应力 西北太平洋 气候模式 模式偏差 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]