基于时空地理加权回归模型2016至2019年中国流行性感冒发病影响因素分析  

Analysis on influencing factors of influenza in China from 2016 to 2019 based on spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model

作　　者：韩笑荷 赵明扬 王宗熹 吴柯檬 王晓文 甄子怡 孙长青[1,2] HAN Xiaohe;ZHAO Mingyang;WANG Zongxi;WU Kemeng;WANG Xiaowen;ZHEN Ziyi;SUN Changqing(Department of Community Nursing,School of Nursing and Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001;Department of Social Medicine and Health Service Management,College of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学护理与健康学院社区护理教研室,郑州450001 [2]郑州大学公共卫生学院社会医学与卫生事业管理学教研室,郑州450001

出　　处：《郑州大学学报(医学版)》2025年第1期109-114,共6页Journal of Zhengzhou University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：河南省医学科技攻关计划项目(LHGJ20200681);河南省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202310459013)。

摘　　要：目的:基于时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型探讨流行性感冒发病的影响因素。方法:使用2016至2019年全国分地区流行性感冒分月统计数据,分析中国流行性感冒发病的时空分布。将流行性感冒发病率作为因变量,气象和空气质量因素(风速、湿度、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)、CO、O_(3)、PM_(2.5))作为自变量,进行全局空间自相关分析和多重共线性检验后,构建GTWR模型,计算各自变量的平均回归系数,根据平均回归系数分析各自变量对不同地区流行性感冒发病的影响。结果:2016至2019年中国流行性感冒发病率呈逐年上升趋势,北京均处于全国最高水平。各自变量对不同地区流行性感冒发病的影响:风速对云南、重庆等地区有明显的促进作用;湿度对上海、天津、浙江等地区有较明显的促进作用,而对北京、河北、安徽等地区有明显的抑制作用;PM_(10)对北京、河北、天津等地区,SO_(2)对福建、广东等地区有明显的促进作用;NO_(2)对甘肃、宁夏、贵州、广东、广西、海南等地区,CO对安徽、河南、河北等地区,O_(3)对北京、河北、安徽等地区,PM_(2.5)对广东、海南、浙江等地区均有一定的促进作用。结论:气象、空气质量因素对流行性感冒发病存在明显影响,具有时空特异性,各地区应根据具体情况,制定区域个性化预防措施。Aim:To explore the influencing factors of influenza based on the spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression(GTWR)model.Methods:The monthly statistical data of influenza in different regions of China from 2016 to 2019 were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of influenza in China.The incidence of influenza was used as the dependent variable,and wind speed,humidity,PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2),CO,O_(3),and PM_(2.5) were used as independent variables.After the multicollinearity and spatial autocorrelation tests were performed in advance,the GTWR model was constructed to calculate the average regression coefficients of each variable.Results:From 2016 to 2019,the incidence of influenza in China showed an increasing trend year by year,and Beijing was at the highest level in the country.Wind speed had a significant promoting effect on the incidence of influenza in Yunnan,Chongqing and other regions;humidity had a significant promoting effect on the incidence of influenza in Shanghai,Tianjin,Zhejiang and other regions,while it had a significant inhibitory effect in Beijing,Hebei,Anhui and other regions.PM_(10) had obvious promoting effect on the incidence of influenza in Beijing,Hebei,Tianjin and other regions,and SO_(2) had obvious promoting effect in Fujian,Guangdong and other regions.NO_(2) had a certain promoting effect on the incidence of influenza in Gansu,Ningxia,Guizhou,Guangdong,Guangxi,Hainan and other regions;CO had a certain promoting effect on the incidence of influenza in Anhui,Henan,Hebei and other regions;O_(3) had a certain promoting effect on the incidence of influenza in Beijing,Hebei,Anhui and other regions;PM_(2.5) had a certain promoting effect on the incidence of influenza in Guangdong,Hainan,Zhejiang and other regions.Conclusion:Meteorological and air quality factors have significant impact on the incidence of influenza and are spatiotemporal specific.Influenza preventive measures should be taken for different factors in different regions.

关 键 词：流行性感冒 时空地理加权回归 影响因素 气象 空气质量 

分 类 号：R188[医药卫生—流行病学]