贵仁模型云在湄公河流域适用性评估  

Assessment of the Applicability of GRMS Cloud in the Mekong River Basin

作　　者：季通焱 杨鹏鑫 包红军 李艳忠[1,2] 黄鹏年 JI Tong-yan;YANG Peng-xin;BAO Hong-jun;LI Yan-zhong;HUANG Peng-nian(School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;College of Water Conservancy Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory,Beijing 100081,China;National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [3]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024 [4]中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,北京100081 [5]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第1期10-14,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务专项(2022B03027-3);全国暴雨研究开放基金项目(BYKJ2024Z11);国家自然科学基金项目(41901036);中国气象局流域水文气象预报青年创新团队(CMA2023QN09)。

摘　　要：贵仁模型云为一套完全国产的模拟平台,现已广泛应用,但在国际河流研究和应用较少。基于此,分析了湄公河流域水文要素的时空特征,采用Mann-Kendall法计算了各要素趋势的显著性水平,评估了贵仁模型云在湄公河流域的适用性,并通过去趋势处理和相对贡献率法量化了降水和潜在蒸散发变化对径流的贡献。结果表明,1979~2014年间,湄公河流域的降水和潜在蒸散发变化趋势不显著,但径流呈显著下降趋势。贵仁模型云在各去趋势情景中对湄公河流域径流的模拟效果良好。此外,在湄公河流域中,降水变化是影响径流变化的主导因素,而潜在蒸散发的影响较为次要。研究结果有助于理解湄公河流域径流变化及其特征,同时扩展了贵仁模型云的适用范围。The GRMS Cloud is a set of fully domestic simulation platforms that are now widely used.However,it is still insufficient for international river research and application.This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal characteris-tics of hydrological elements in the Mekong River Basin.Mann-Kendall method is used to calculate the significance levels of the trends of each element.The applicability of the GRMS Cloud in the Mekong River Basin is evaluated.In addition,the contribution of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes to runoff is quantified by detrending treatment and relative contribution method.The results show that the trend of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes in the Mekong River Basin between 1979 and 2014 was not significant,but the runoff showed a significant decreasing trend.The GRMS Cloud simulated runoff in the Mekong River Basin well in each de-trending scenario.In addition,in the Mekong River Basin,precipitation change is the dominant factor affecting runoff change,while the effect of potential e-vapotranspiration is more minor.This study contributes to the understanding of runoff variability and its characteristics in the Mekong River Basin and extends the applicability of the GRMS Cloud.

关 键 词：贵仁模型云 湄公河流域 径流模拟 相对贡献 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]