高混凝土坝位移监控模型前期温度因子的优化  

Optimization of Previous Temperature Factors in Displacement Monitoring Model of High Concrete Dams

作　　者：柴斌高 邹嘉鑫 郑徐敏 王少伟 CHAI Bin-gao;ZOU Jia-xin;ZHENG Xu-min;WANG Shao-wei(School of Urban Construction,Changzhou University,Changzhou 213164,China)

机构地区：[1]常州大学城市建设学院,江苏常州213164

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第1期127-131,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51709021);中国水利水电科学研究院水利部水工程建设与安全重点实验室开放研究基金(202107)。

摘　　要：当前高混凝土坝位移监控模型未考虑温度敏感性,所有位移测点均采用相同的温度建模因子,且坝体温度和位移同属响应量,以温度为因子所建位移模型缺乏预测能力。对此,利用Shapley法确定各位移测点较敏感的温度测点,再结合基于滞后影响机理的高混凝土坝实测温度场分区及其因果预测模型,提出了以坝址气温和上游库水位为基础的前期温度因子构建方法,建立了考虑温度滞后性和敏感性的高混凝土坝位移因果预测模型。对锦屏一级拱坝的实例分析结果表明,该方法操作简便、可行性高,为前期气温和库水位选用总时段长度和分段间隔提供了定量依据。相较于谐波温度因子和传统前期分段平均温度因子,所建位移模型预测精度高、测点适应性好,预测均方根误差分别平均降低了24.9%、29.2%。Existing displacement monitoring model for concrete dams does not consider temperature sensitivity,and the same temperature modeling factor is used for all displacement monitoring points.The temperature and displacement of the dam body are both response variables,and the displacement model built by the former factor is lack of prediction a-bility.The Shapley method is used to determine the sensitive dam temperature monitoring points with respect to dam dis-placement monitoring point.According to the clustered zones and its causal prediction model of the measured dam tem-perature field based on lag influencing mechanism,previous temperature deformation factors are set using air temperature and upstream reservoir water level,and a causal prediction model considering temperature hysteresis and sensitivity is es-tablished for displacement of high concrete dam.The example analysis results of the Jinping-I arch dam show that the proposed method is simple and feasible,which provides a quantitative basis for the selection of the total period length and segmentation interval of the previous air temperature and reservoir water level.Compared with the harmonic temperature factor and the traditional segmented average previous temperature factor,the established displacement model has high prediction accuracy and good universality,and the root mean square error is reduced by 24.9%and 29.2%,respectively.

关 键 词：高混凝土坝 位移监控模型 滞后影响机理 温度敏感性 前期温度因子 

分 类 号：TV642.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]