考虑场景化特征的电力系统薄弱点两阶段精确辨识方法  

A Two-stage Accurate Identification Method for Weak Points in Power System Considering Scenario-based Features

作　　者：蒋天伦 刘文霞 李承泽 曹宇 JIANG Tianlun;LIU Wenxia;LI Chengze;CAO Yu(State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources(North China Electric Power University),Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统全国重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京102206

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期12-21,I0001,共11页Journal of North China Electric Power University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重大科技专项(2020YFC0827001)。

摘　　要：由于场景化特征的差异性会导致电力系统脆弱点的不同,提出一种考虑场景化特征的电力系统薄弱点两阶段精确辨识方法。首先,考虑厂、站内设备毁伤对厂站功能损伤和修复时间影响,设备间可靠性关联关系,以及设备的地理聚集特征,建立子模块毁伤后果和厂站失能故障集。其次,考虑目标失能区域与预期恢复时间,建立电力系统关键厂站和子模块的两阶段优化辨识模型。进而,针对第一阶段采用KKT条件法并利用大M法将非线性约束做线性化处理,把问题转化成单层混合整数线性模型,利用求解器进行求解。最后,通过IEEE-39节点系统进行算例仿真,验证了模型的合理性,其获得的精确薄弱区域对支持防御者制定不同场景下的防御决策具有重要意义,提高了防御策略的合理性和科学性。Since the diversity of scenario-based features can lead to different vulnerabilities in the power system,we propose a two-stage accurate identification method for power system weaknesses considering scenario-based features.Firstly,we establish a set of submodule damage consequences and plant/station deactivation faults by considering the impact of plant and station facility destruction on plant and station deactivation,the reliability correlations among facilities,and the geographical clustering characteristics of the facilities.Secondly,considering the target deactivation area and expected recovery time,we establish a two-stage optimized identification model for key plant stations and sub-modules of power system.Further,the problem is transformed into a single-level mixed-integer linear programming model by applying the KKT conditions and linearizing the nonlinear constraints using the Big-M method,which is solved by using the solver.Finally,simulation using the IEEE-39 node system verifies the reasonableness of the model.The precisely identified vulnerable areas obtained are important to support the defender in making defense decisions under different scenarios and improve the rationality and scientificity of the defense strategy.

关 键 词：电力系统脆弱性 薄弱点辨识 薄弱设备辨识 电力系统场景化特征 混合整数线性规划 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]