基于Markov模型的风光互补能源系统可靠性研究  

Reliability Study of Wind-Solar Complementary Energy Systems Based on Markov Model

作　　者：李朋 李文萱[1] 李亚男 Li Peng;Li Wenxuan;Li Yanan(School of Electrical Engineering,Chuzhou Polytechnic,Chuzhou,Anhui 239000,China)

机构地区：[1]滁州职业技术学院电气工程学院,安徽滁州239000

出　　处：《黑龙江工业学院学报(综合版)》2024年第11期112-116,共5页Journal of Heilongjiang University of Technology(Comprehensive Edition)

基　　金：安徽省优秀青年教师培育项目“考虑拓扑结构的Petri网电-气-热综合能源薄弱环节辨识方法”(项目编号:YQYB2023159);滁州职业技术学院校级重点科研课题“基于拓扑结构的Petri网电-气-热综合能源薄弱环节辨识方法”(课题编号:ZKZ-2022-07)。

摘　　要：为有效提高风光互补能源系统运行可靠性,增加风光能源在综合能源中占有比,提出一种基于Markov模型的风光互补能源系统可靠性研究方法。首先,利用Markov链分别对风、光、储系统做随机建模,确定分布式系统运行状态的关联,研究每个子系统的稳态故障率与修复率;其次,将电力系统运行可靠性指标引入到系统的运行过程中,寻找各子系统最佳组合方式及容量配比;最后,以IEEE39节点和风-光-储系统组成的风光互补能源系统仿真分析,验证所提方法的有效性。To effectively enhance the operational reliability of wind-solar hybrid energy systems and increase the share of wind and solar energy in integrated energy systems,a reliability research method based on the Markov algorithm is proposed.Firstly,Markov chains are utilized to perform stochastic modeling of the wind,solar,and storage systems individually,determining the correlation of operational states within each distributed system,and analyzing the steady-state failure rates and repair rates of each subsystem.Secondly,reliability indices of power system operation are introduced into the system′s operational process to identify the optimal combination and capacity ratio of the subsystems.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through a simulation analysis of a wind-solar hybrid energy system comprising the IEEE 39 node and a wind-solar-storage system.

关 键 词：风光互补 能源系统 MARKOV 可靠性 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM61