中国经济赶超过程中的汇率趋势和汇率政策  

The Trend and Policy of RMB Exchange Rate During China’s Economic Catch-Up

作　　者：郑超愚[1] Zheng Chaoyu

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《学术研究》2025年第1期92-99,180,共9页Academic Research

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国经济持续快速增长,创造了中国式现代化的经济赶超奇迹。以经济增长、通货膨胀、名义汇率三要素核算中国与美国相对国民收入的结果显示,人民币实际汇率的升值和贬值对中国经济赶超有着重要历史贡献和关键现实作用。人民币汇率的演化历史是与动态购买力平价理论所预测的U型曲线国际规律基本一致的,已经完成向国际标准升值的均衡化调整过程。人民币汇率的未来趋势主要依存于中国经济快速增长的可持续性,而人民币汇率的波动形态敏感反应国内外经济周期的非同步性。中国汇率政策应该采取均衡取向,在依靠快速经济增长来支持人民币汇率均衡稳定的同时,通过人民币均衡汇率的持续升值来加速经济赶超进程,避免以提高利率来防止人民币贬值或者以贬值人民币来扩大出口需求这样的短视政策选择。China’s rapid economic growth since the reform and opening creates the economic catch-up miracle in Chinese-style moderation.The catch-up accounting of relative national income between China and the United States by growth,inflation and exchange rate,sufficiently demonstrates the important historic contribution and key realistic impact of RMB’s real appreciation and depreciation to China’s economic catch-up.The evolutionary history of RMB exchange rate is basically consistent with the international law of U-shaped curve predicted by dynamic PPP theory,and has fulfilled its equilibrating appreciation towards international standard.The future tendency of RMB exchange rate mainly depends on the sustainability of China’s rapid economic growth,the fluctuation pattern of which sensitively responds to the non-synchronization between international business cycles.Therefore,China’s exchange rate policy should be equilibrium orientated,to keep RMB exchange rate equilibrated and stable through rapid economic growth,meanwhile,accelerate economic catch-up through the continuous appreciation of RMB equilibrium exchange rate,but avoiding short-sighted policy choices such as preventing RMB depreciation through interest rate increase or expanding net export through RMB depreciation.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 经济赶超核算 动态购买力平价理论 汇率政策取向 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832.6