A robust statistical prediction model for late-summer heavy precipitation days in North China  

作　　者：Shunli JIANG Tingting HAN Xin ZHOU Huijun WANG Zhicong YIN Xiaolei SONG 

机构地区：[1]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,210044,China [2]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100029,China [3]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai,519080,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2025年第1期158-171,共14页中国科学(地球科学英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0801604);the Science and Technology Development Plan in Jilin Province of China(Grant No.20230203135SF)。

摘　　要：Recently,heavy precipitation(HP)events have occurred frequently in North China(NC),causing devastating economic losses and human fatalities.However,the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite limited.Combining year-to-year increment(DY)method and sliding correlations,we developed a robust seasonal prediction model for late-summer HP days(HPDs)in NC during 1982–2022,utilizing three independent predictors—February sea surface temperature(SST)in the Indian Ocean(SST_IO),February snow depth over North Asia(SDE_NA),and May melted snow depth in NC(MSDE_NC).The SST_IO anomalies affect NC's precipitation through the Pacific-Japan pattern.The SDE_NA anomalies are associated with East Asian anomalous anticyclone by southeastern propagation of Rossby wave at Eurasia.The MSDE_NC anomalies are followed by vertical motion and moisture anomalies in situ and thereby cause precipitation anomalies.This prediction model can well simulate the variations of the HPDs,with a correlation coefficient(CC)of 0.81(0.65)between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly).The percentage with the same sign for 15 extreme HPDs_anomaly years(PSSE)is 100%.Moreover,in the cross-validation test during 1982–2022,the PSSE for HPDs_anomaly is as high as 100%,along with a low rootmean-square error of 1.14.For independent hindcasts during 2013–2022,the CC between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly)is 0.93(0.83),together with high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(0.82)and agreement index(0.89).Specifically,the predictions are broadly consistent with the observations for 2015,2016,2017,2021,and 2022,reflecting excellent performance of this prediction model of HPDs in NC.

关 键 词：Heavy precipitation at North China Year-to-year increment approach Robust seasonal prediction Sea surface temperature Snow depth 

分 类 号：P73[天文地球—海洋科学]