对印度经济成就与前景的再认识——兼议印对华经济政策心理动机  

A Reassessment of India's Economic Achievements and Its Prospects:With a Discussion on the Psychological Motives behind India's Economic Policies toward China

作　　者：叶海林 吴俊 张展毓 Ye Hailin;Wu Jun;Zhang Zhanyu

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所 [2]中国社科院大学

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2025年第1期1-23,152,共24页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

摘　　要：近年来,西方舆论根据印度GDP增速及经济总量升至世界第五的纵向变化,过度宣传印度经济的未来前景。然而,从全球GDP占比、全球财富占比以及对标中国GDP增速等横向变化来看,“印度经济崛起论”尚不具备充分论据。特别是在英国和法国等国经济增速减缓的情况下,印度经济总量世界排名虽然不断攀升,但规模和质量上升并不显著。印度经济发展存在难以跨越的三大硬约束:资本主义经济制度下的财阀顽疾、无人技术进步下的人口红利虚化、全球经济低迷的大周期环境。为了应对经济挑战和保持增长速度,在中印关系紧张以及美西方重塑产业链供应链背景下,印度日渐将中国视为盘剥和利用的“工具人”、本土市场的“竞争者”与“打击对象”以及全球产业链供应链位置的“可替代者”。在多重政策目标驱动下,印度近年来积极推进短期利用中国、长期与中国“脱轨”并与美西方“接轨”的“产业替代”政策。然而,这一战略由于存在逻辑悖论,长期效果无法达到印度预期。而且,“印度制造”取代“中国制造”在可预见的时间周期内更是一个伪命题。In recent years,western public opinion has over-hyped the prospects of the Indian economy based on the growth rate of India’s GDP and its rise to the fifth-largest economy in the world.However,from the perspective of horizontal changes such as the share of global GDP,the share of global wealth,and the GDP growth rate of China,the theory of“Indian economic rise”lacks sufficient evidence,especially in the case of the slowdown of economic growth in countries such as the UK and France.Though India’s economic aggregate has been climbing,the scale and quality of the increase is not significant.India’s economic development faces three severe con-straints that are difficult to overcome:the problem of the plutocrats under the capitalist economic system,the depletion of the demographic dividend under the advancement of unmanned technology,and the global economic downturn.In order to cope with eco-nomic challenges and maintain growth rate,in the context of Sino-Indian tensions and the reshaping of industrial chain and supply chain by the U.S.and the West,India in-creasingly regards China as a“tool”to be exploited and utilized,a“competitor”and“target”in its domestic market,and an“alternative”in the global industrial chain and supply chain.Driven by multiple policy objectives,India has been actively promoting a substitution policy in recent years that aims to take advantage of China in the short-term while gradually decoupling from China and aligning with the U.S.and the West in the long term.However,due to a logical paradox,the long-term effect of this strategy will not meet India’s expectations.Moreover,“Make in India”replacing“Made in China”is a false proposition within a foreseeable time.

关 键 词：印度经济 印度制造 中印经济关系 印度产业政策 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]