基于MaxEnt模型的海南岛人类活动强度分布预测及其对野生动物生境干扰分析  

Prediction of intensity distribution of human activities in Hainan Island based on MaxEnt model and analysis of its habitat disturbance to wild animals

作　　者：李莹 马伯虎 赵宁曦[1,2] LI Ying;MA Bohu;ZHAO Ningxi(School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Hechi University,Hechi 546399,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210023 [2]河池学院,河池546399

出　　处：《生态科学》2024年第6期43-52,共10页Ecological Science

基　　金：河池学院“3D中国旅游赏析&探索MOOC”教改项目(2014EA023);河池学院课程思政项目(2024kcsz32);滇西应用技术大学教学质量工程项目(21py007)。

摘　　要：人类活动对野生动物的生境干扰分析一直是生态地理学的研究重点。以海南岛为研究区域,以海南岛宜出行人类足迹点数据为样本,选取了海拔高度、坡度、土地利用类型、年均降水、年均气温、人口密度、距大型居民点距离、距小型居民点距离、距道路网距离、距水系距离10个环境影响因子,利用最大熵(Maximum Entropy,MaxEnt)模型对海南岛人类活动强度分布格局进行模拟和预测,计算得到的曲线下面积值(Area Under Curve,AUC)为0.745,模拟结果良好。结果表明:海南岛人类活动强度较高的区域沿道路网分布于四周沿海的平坦地区,而中西部高海拔地区的人类活动强度极低。通过对MaxEnt模型模拟的人类活动强度分布数据和野生动物的地理分布数据进行地理信息科学(Geographic Information Science,GIS)空间统计分析,可知:野生动物有低于20%的概率分布于人类活动强度极低的岛内高海拔地区;超过60%的概率分布于人类活动强度较低的地区;低于20%的概率分布于人类活动强度较高的四周沿海地区。研究结果可为海南岛动物保护提供支持,以便更好地维护生物多样性。It has always been the focus of ecological geography research to analyze the disturbance of human activities to the habitats of endangered wild animals.This paper takes Hainan Island as the research area and the Easygo human footprints as the sample data,and it also selects the altitude,slope,land use type,average annual precipitation,average annual temperature,population density,distance from large settlements,distance from small settlements,distance from road network,and distance from water system as 10 environmental impact factors.The MaxEnt model is used to simulate and predict the spatial distribution pattern of human activity intensity in Hainan Island.The AUC is 0.745,which means the simulation result is pretty good.Furthermore,the result shows that the areas with high human activity intensity in Hainan Island are distributed along the road network in the surrounding flat coastal areas,while the high-altitude areas in the central and western regions have extremely low human activity intensity.Through the GIS spatial statistical analysis of both the distribution data of human activity intensity and the geographical distribution data of the endangered wild animals,it can be seen that the probability of wild animals being distributed in high inland areas with very low human activity is less than 20%,and the distribution probability of wild animals is over 60%in areas with low human activity intensity,while in surrounding coastal areas with high human activity intensity,the probability is also less than 20%.The results of this paper can provide support for the protection of endangered animals to better maintain biodiversity in Hainan Island.

关 键 词：人类活动强度 生境干扰 最大熵模型 地理信息科学 生物多样性 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]