人口红利变化对中国体育用品制造业转型升级的影响——基于人口质量红利上升视角的实证研究  

Impact of Demographic Dividend Changes on the Transformation and Upgrading of China's Sports Equipment Manufacturing Industry: Empirical Study Based on the Perspective of Rising Population Quality Dividend

作　　者：徐泰平 陈颇 XU Taiping;CHEN Po(Chongqing Normal University,College of Physical Education and Health Science,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学体育与健康科学学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《湖北体育科技》2025年第1期32-38,共7页Hubei Sports Science

摘　　要：近年来,随着我国人口红利结构发生转变,人口质量红利对我国经济发展的贡献率逐年攀升。对此,本文以2012—2021年我国内地31个省市(自治区)的面板数据为样本,实证检验了人口质量红利上升对体育用品制造业转型升级的影响。研究发现:无论是否考虑控制变量,人口质量红利上升均能显著推动对我国体育用品制造业的转型升级,且其影响具有明显时滞性。就各控制变量而言,城镇化水平、基础设施建设等也在不同程度上对我国体育用品制造业的转型升级产生显著正向影响。地区异质性分析表明,中东部地区人口质量红利上升对我国体育用品制造业转型升级的影响程度要远高于西部地区。最后,为进一步丰富我国体育用品制造业转型升级的路径,从人口质量红利上升层面提出相应对策和建议。In recent years,with the transformation of China's population dividend structure,the contribution rate of population quality dividend to China's economic development has been increasing year by year.This article uses panel data from 31 provinces and municipalities(autonomous regions)in China's Mainland from 2012 to 2021 as a sample to empirically test the impact of the rising population quality dividend on the transformation and upgrading of the sports goods manufacturing industry.Research has found that regardless of whether control variables are considered or not,the increase in population quality dividend can significantly promote the transformation and upgrading of China's sports goods manufacturing industry,and its impact has a significant time lag.In terms of various control variables,the level of urbanization and infrastructure construction also have a significant positive impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's sports goods manufacturing industry to varying degrees.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the increase in population quality dividend in the central and eastern regions has a much greater impact on the transformation and upgrading of China's sports goods manufacturing industry than in the western regions.Finally,in order to further enrich the path of transformation and upgrading of China's sports goods manufacturing industry,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from the perspective of increasing population quality dividends.

关 键 词：人口质量红利上升 体育用品制造业 转型升级 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]