个体化预测老年支气管扩张症患者焦虑抑郁发生风险的列线图模型构建  

Construction of a nomogram model to predict the risk of anxiety depression in elderly bronchiectasis

作　　者：李静[1] 王家珍[1] Li Jing;Wang Jiazhen(Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,Sichuan Santai County People's Hospital,Mianyang 621100,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省三台县人民医院呼吸与危重症医学科,绵阳621100

出　　处：《中国医师进修杂志》2025年第2期173-177,共5页Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析老年支气管扩张症患者发生焦虑抑郁的危险因素,并建立预测风险列线图模型。方法回顾性选取2020年1月至2023年1月在四川省三台县人民医院治疗的90例老年支气管扩张症患者为研究对象,观察患者焦虑抑郁发生情况,分析发生焦虑抑郁的危险因素,并建立预测风险列线图模型。结果90例老年支气管扩张症患者中,有40例患者发生焦虑抑郁,焦虑抑郁发生率为44.44%。单因素、多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,住院次数、咳血、文化程度、动脉血氧分压、病情严重程度、铜绿假单胞菌定植、住院天数、家庭月收入、家庭幸福指数是影响老年支气管扩张症患者发生焦虑抑郁的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。基于9项独立危险因素,绘制老年支气管扩张症患者发生焦虑抑郁的列线图预测模型。Calibration验证结果显示,该模型的预测值与实测值拟合度较高。Bootstrap内部验证结果显示,一致性指数为0.724(95%CI 0.670~0.779)。结论老年支气管扩张症患者发生焦虑抑郁可受到多种因素的影响,构建的预测风险列线图模型具有较高的预测效能。Objective To analyze the risk factors of anxiety and depression in elderly bronchiectasis patients and establish a nomogram model.Methods A total of 90 elderly patients with bronchiectasis who were treated in Sichuan Santai County People′s Hospital from January 2020 to January 2023 were selected as the research subjects.The incidence of anxiety and depression in patients was observed,influencing factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and a predictive risk column chart model was established.Results In 90 elderly patients,40 patients experienced anxiety and depression,with an incidence rate of 44.44%.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that hospitalization frequency,hemoptysis,educational level,arterial partial oxygen pressure(PaO 2),severity of the condition,copper green colonization,length of hospital stay,monthly family income,and family happiness index were risk factors for anxiety and depression in elderly patients with bronchiectasis(P<0.05).A column line prediction model for anxiety and depression in elderly patients with bronchiectasis based on 9 independent risk factors was drawn.The calibration verification result show that the predicted values of the model had a high degree of fit with the measured values.The internal validation result of bootstrap showed that the C-index was 0.724(95%CI 0.670-0.779).Conclusions The occurrence of anxiety and depression in elderly patients with bronchiectasis can be influenced by various factors.The model has high predictive performance.

关 键 词：支气管扩张症 焦虑 抑郁障碍 列线图 危险因素 

分 类 号：R562.22[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R749[医药卫生—内科学]