松墨天牛在山西省的潜在地理分布和扩张风险分析  

Analysis of potential geographical distribution and expansion risk of Japanese pine sawyer beetle Monochamus alternatus in Shanxi Province

作　　者：范世明 张楠 王淼 刘磊 崔浩 刘燕 崔绍朋 张志伟[1,3] 高瑞贺 Fan Shiming;Zhang Nan;Wang Miao;Liu Lei;Cui Hao;Liu Yan;Cui Shaopeng;Zhang Zhiwei;Gao Ruihe(Forestry College,Shanxi Agricultural University,Jinzhong 030800,Shanxi Province,China;Forestry Administration of Qinshui County,Qinshui 048200,Shanxi Province,China;Shanxi Dangerous Forest and Grass Pest Inspection and Identification Center,Jinzhong 030800,Shanxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学林学院,晋中030800 [2]山西省沁水县林业局,沁水048200 [3]山西省林草危险性有害生物检验鉴定中心,晋中030800

出　　处：《植物保护学报》2024年第6期1496-1505,共10页Journal of Plant Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(32401594);山西省回国留学人员科研资助项目(2023-087);山西省应用基础研究计划青年科技研究基金(20210302124062)。

摘　　要：为探究松墨天牛Monochamus alternatus在山西省的潜在地理分布及扩张风险,利用山西省93个气象站点2002—2022年的有效气温观测数据,采用基于数字高程模型(digitalelevation model,DEM)的多元线性回归插值法对山西省气温空间分布进行模拟,以最冷月月均温和有效积温为依据确定当前气候下和未来增温气候(增温分别为1.5、2.3、2.8和3.3℃)下松墨天牛在山西省的潜在适生区分布情况和面积;采用多指标综合评判法量化松墨天牛在山西省的地理扩张风险等级。结果表明:山西省年平均温度、最冷月月均温、大于10.6℃有效积温的回归模型的决定系数分别为0.901、0.957和0.877,P值均小于0.001,模型模拟效果较好;当前气候下松墨天牛在山西省的高适生区面积为4.606×10^(4) km^(2),占全省总面积的28.92%,主要分布在山西省南部;未来增温气候下松墨天牛在山西省的高适生区分布持续向北扩展,延伸至山西省中部的大部分区域和忻州市,当增温分别为1.5、2.3、2.8和3.3℃时,高适生区面积分别达到7.199×10^(4)、8.530×10^(4)、9.389×10^(4)和10.179×10^(4)km^(2);松墨天牛在山西省地理扩张的风险综合评价值为2.10,在山西省具有高地理扩张风险。To investigate the potential geographical distribution and expansion risk of Japanese pine sawyer Monochamus alternatus in Shanxi Province,spatial temperature distribution was simulated us-ing a multiple linear regression interpolation method based on a digital elevation model(DEM)and ef-fective temperature observation data from 93 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province during the pe-riod of 2002—2022.Based on the mean temperature of the coldest month and the effective accumulated temperature,the distribution and potential suitable areas were analyzed under current climate conditons and future warming climate scenarios(warming of 1.5,2.3,2.8 and 3.3℃,respectively).Theresults show that the regression model coefficients of determination for annual mean temperature,coldest month mean temperature and effective accumulated temperature above 10.6℃were0.901,0.957and 0.877,respectively,with P-values all less than 0.001,indicating the model's strong simulation perfor-mance.Under current climate conditions,the highly suitable areas for M.alternatus in Shanxi Province is 4.606×10^(4) km^(2),accounting for 28.92%of the total area of the province,mainly distributed in the southern part of Shanxi Province.Under future warming climate scenarios,the highly suitable areas are projected to expand northward,extending into central Shanxi Province and Xinzhou City.The areas of highly suitability are expected to increase to 7.199×10^(4)、8.530×10^(4)、9.389×10^(4)and10.179×10^(4)km^(2)un-der warming scenarios of 1.5,2.3,2.8,and 3.3 C,respectively.The comprehensive risk assessment value for the geographical expansion of M.alternatus in Shanxi Province was calculated as 2.10,classi-fying it as a highly dangerous forest pest.

关 键 词：松墨天牛 适生区 风险评价 气温 空间模拟 

分 类 号：S76[农业科学—森林保护学]