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作 者:毕颖达 滕如雨 BI Yingda;TENG Ruyu
机构地区:[1]中山大学国际关系学院 [2]山东大学东北亚学院,山东省威海市264209
出 处:《世界经济与政治论坛》2025年第1期124-145,172,共23页Forum of World Economics & Politics
基 金:国家社会科学基金重大项目“百年变局与中国周边安全新态势研究”(23&ZD331)的阶段性成果。
摘 要:随着美国对华战略竞争不断升级,亚太区域“中等强国”的战略选择备受关注。本文从体系压力和利基平台出发,提出了“中等强国”战略选择的解释框架。在宽松的体系环境中,所有“中等强国”都偏好康德式战略,追求战略自主和多边外交,进而提升国际影响,护持“中等强国”的身份。随着体系压力增大,利基平台开始发挥作用。存在稳固利基平台的“中等强国”能够继续维持康德式战略,而缺乏稳固利基平台的国家被迫要回归洛克式战略。此外,体系的复合依赖程度同样影响“中等强国”的战略行为,体系环境的复合依赖程度升高会导致国家的战略纯度降低。通过追踪印度尼西亚(以下简称印尼)和澳大利亚两个典型“中等强国”在不同体系阶段的战略选择,可以对上述机制进行验证。从体系压力和利基平台出发探究“中等强国”战略形成、分化和转变的动因,有助于评估该类国家的外交动向,并服务于相应外交决策。With the escalating strategic competition between the United States and China,the strategic choices of the“middle powers”in the Asia-Pacific region have attracted much attention.Based on systemic pressure and niche platforms,this paper puts forward an explanatory framework for the strategic choices of the“middle powers”.In a loose systemic environment,all“middle powers”prefer Kantian strategies,thus pursuing strategic autonomy and multilateral diplomacy to enhance their international influence and maintain the identity of“middle powers”.As systemic pressures increase,niche platforms come into play.The“middle powers”with established niche platforms can continue to maintain Kantian strategies,while those lacking solid niche platforms are forced to revert to Lockean strategies.In addition,the degree of complex interdependence within the system also affects the strategic behaviors of the“middle powers”,and an increase in the level of complex interdependence in the systemic environment will lead to a decrease in the strategic purity of the countries.This mechanism can be verified by tracing the strategic choices of two typical“middle powers”,Indonesia and Australia,at different stages of the system.Exploring the reasons of the strategic formation,differentiation and transformation of the“middle powers”from the perspectives of systemic pressure and niche platforms can help assess the diplomatic trends of such countries and serve corresponding diplomatic decision-making.
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