产业配套能力、供应链稳定性与“稳外资”  

Industry Support Capability,Supply Chain Stability and Ensure Stability in Foreign Divestment

作　　者：严兵[1] 蒋晓婧 YAN Bing;JIANG Xiaojing

机构地区：[1]南开大学跨国公司研究中心 [2]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2025年第1期71-86,M0003,M0004,共18页World Economy Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“外部挑战与内部约束下‘稳外资’问题研究”(项目编号:22JJD790040)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章基于商务部发布的外商投资企业变更信息构建了外资企业撤资数据库,考察了本地产业配套能力对外资撤资决策的影响。研究结果表明,本地产业配套能力提升能够有效降低外商撤资概率及规模,且这种抑制效果对于资本和技术密集型行业的企业、非独资企业和美资企业的外资撤资以及减资型撤资更加显著。机制检验结果表明,本地产业配套能力的增强通过提高企业生产率和增强企业本土中间投入依赖程度两个中间渠道抑制了外商撤资。基于中国海关数据库和世界投入产出数据库,文章构建了行业层面的全球供应链生产风险指标,发现全球供应链的相对稳定能够促使本地产业配套能力更有效地发挥“稳外资”作用。文章的结论有助于从产业链、供应链角度为“稳外资”政策提供参考和依据。Based on the information about modifications(filing) of foreign-funded enterprises released by China' s ministry of commerce,we build the database of divestment of foreign-invested enterprises and explore whether and how the improvement of local industry support affects foreign investors' divestment decisions.The empirical result shows that improving the capability of regional upstream industry support effectively reduces the probability and scale of foreign divestment,especially in capital-and technology-intensive industries,joint ventures and firms mainly funded by American investors,as well as for partial direct divestments.We examine the mechanism of this effect and find that by improving productivity and dependence on domestic intermediate inputs,strengthening local industry support restrains foreign divestment.Furthermore,based on the China customs database and world input and output database,we construct an industrial level index describing the production risk brought by joining the global supply chain and find that improving local industry support has a greater impact on foreign divestment in industries with a relatively more stable global supply chain environment.The conclusions of this paper can provide reference and basis for policies of ensuring stability in foreign investment.

关 键 词：产业配套 外商撤资 全球供应链风险 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]